Award Abstract #0429520 EID: Collaborative Research: The Interplay Of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Factors in Epidemiological Dynamics: Cholera as a Case Study
Samuel M. Scheiner
EF Emerging Frontiers
BIO Directorate for Biological Sciences
Start Date:
September 15, 2004
Expires:
August 31, 2009 (Estimated)
Awarded Amount to Date:
$301677
Investigator(s):
James Kinter kinter@cola.iges.org (Principal Investigator)
Sponsor:
Institute of Global Environment and Society
4041 Powder Mill Road, Suite 302
Calverton, MD 20705 301/595-7000
NSF Program(s):
BE-UF: ECOL OF INFECTIOUS DISE
Field Application(s):
0116000 Human Subjects
Program Reference Code(s):
BIOT, 9183, 7242
Program Element Code(s):
7308
ABSTRACT
The outbreaks of many infectious diseases display pronounced seasonal and interannual (year to year) variation. To date, investigations of the role of environmental factors including climatic ones, have not significantly progressed beyond simple correlative analyses. This project develops quantitative approaches to address the role of climate and other environmental factors in the population dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly those with temporary (short-lived) immunity and free-living infectious stages. The work focuses on cholera in its main endemic region (NE India and Bangladesh), but also other regions of Asia (Vietnam) and Africa (Mozambique). Its ultimate aim is to develop quantitative scenarios for cholera under climate change, by combining results on disease-environmental couplings with climate models.The applicability of the developed quantitative approaches to other diseases (particularly malaria and other vector borne pathogens) will be examined.
The global climate is changing. The most likely avenues for impacts on disease dynamics are through concomitant changes in the seasonal environmental variables that drive transmission, and through changes in the dominant (interannual) modes of variability (e.g. ENSO) that are observed in the current climate. Neither mechanism can be understood without a solid understanding of how climate variability has influenced disease patterns in the past. Extensive spatial and temporal cholera records provide an opportunity to address such understanding for an infectious disease remaining a public health problem around the globe, particularly in Asia but also Africa, for which the role of the environment is an important open question.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
Altizer, S; Dobson, A; Hosseini, P; Hudson, P; Pascual, M; Rohani, P. "Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases," ECOLOGY LETTERS, v.9, 2006, p. 467-484.
Cash, B. A., X. Rodó, J. L. Kinter III. "Links between tropical Pacific SST and cholera incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the eastern and central tropical Pacific.," J. Climate, v.21, 2008, p. 4647.
Cash, B. A., X. Rodó, J. L. Kinter III. "Links between tropical Pacific SST and the regional climate of Bangladesh: Role of the western tropical and central extratropial Pacific.," J. Climate, v.21, 2008, p. 4647.
Cash, B. A., X. Rodó, J. L. Kinter III, M. J. Fennessy, and B. Doty. "Differing estimates of observed Bangladesh rainfall," J. Hydrometeorology, v.9, 2008, p. 1106.
Chaves L.F. and M. Pascual. "Comparing Models for Early Warning Systems of Neglected Tropical Diseases.," PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v.1, 2007, p. e33.
Chaves, L.F., Cohen JM, Pascual M, Wilson ML.. "Social Exclusion Modifies Climate and Deforestation Impacts on a Vector-Borne Disease," PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v.2, 2008.
Chaves, LF; Kaneko, A; Taleo, G; Pascual, M; Wilson, ML. "Malaria transmission pattern resilience to climatic variability is mediated by insecticide-treated nets," MALARIA JOURNAL, v.7, 2008.
Chaves, LF; Pascual, M. "Climate cycles and forecasts of cutaneous leishmaniasis, a nonstationary vector-borne disease (vol 3, pg 1320, 2006)," PLOS MEDICINE, v.4, 2007, p. 602-602.
Emch, M; Feldacker, C; Islam, MS; Ali, M. "Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns," INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF HEALTH GEOGRAPHICS, v.7, 2008.
Emch, M; Feldacker, C; Yunus, M; Streatfield, PK; DinhThiem, V; Canh, DG; Ali, M. "Local environmental predictors of cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam," AMERICAN JOURNAL OF TROPICAL MEDICINE AND HYGIENE, v.78, 2008, p. 823-832.
Ionides, EL; Breto, C; King, AA. "Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems," PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v.103, 2006, p. 18438-18443.
King, AA; Ionides, EL; Pascual, M; Bouma, MJ. "Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics," NATURE, v.454, 2008, p. 877-U29.
Koelle, K; Pascual, M. "Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: A nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera," AMERICAN NATURALIST, v.163, 2004, p. 901-913.
Koelle, K; Rodo, X; Pascual, M; Yunus, M; Mostafa, G. "Refractory periods and climate forcing in cholera dynamics," NATURE, v.436, 2005, p. 696-700.
Pascual, M., L.F. Chaves, X. Rodo, B. Cash and Md. Yunus. "Predictability of endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics.," Climate Research, v.36, 2008, p. 131.
Pascual, M; Ahumada, JA; Chaves, LF; Rodo, X; Bouma, M. "Malaria resurgence in the East African highlands: Temperature trends revisited," PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, v.103, 2006, p. 5829-5834.
Pascual, M; Cazelles, B; Bouma, MJ; Chaves, LF; Koelle, K. "Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland," PROCEEDINGS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, v.275, 2008, p. 123-132.
Pascual, M; Chaves, LF; Cash, B; Rodo, X; Yunus, M. "Predicting endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics," CLIMATE RESEARCH, v.36, 2008, p. 131-140.
Pascual, M; Koelle, K; Dobson, AP. "Hyperinfectivity in cholera: A new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?," PLOS MEDICINE, v.3, 2006, p. 931-933.
Rodo, X; Rodriguez-Arias, MA. "A new method to detect transitory signatures and local time/space variability structures in the climate system: the scale-dependent correlation analysis," CLIMATE DYNAMICS, v.27, 2006, p. 441-458.
Ruiz-Moreno, D; Pascual, M; Bouma, M; Dobson, A; Cash, B. "Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-4940): Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions," ECOHEALTH, v.4, 2007, p. 52-62.
