Award Abstract #0430001
EID: Collaborative Research: The Interplay of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Factors in Epidemiological Dynamics: Cholera as a Case Study

NSF Org:	EF Emerging Frontiers
Initial Amendment Date:	September 13, 2004
Latest Amendment Date:	September 13, 2004
Award Number:	0430001
Award Instrument:	Standard Grant
Program Manager:	Samuel M. Scheiner EF Emerging Frontiers BIO Directorate for Biological Sciences
Start Date:	September 15, 2004
Expires:	August 31, 2009 (Estimated)
Awarded Amount to Date:	$93065
Investigator(s):	Andrew Dobson dobber@princeton.edu (Principal Investigator)
Sponsor:	Princeton University Off. of Research & Proj. Admin. Princeton, NJ 08544 609/258-3090
NSF Program(s):	BE-UF: ECOL OF INFECTIOUS DISE
Field Application(s):	0116000 Human Subjects
Program Reference Code(s):	BIOT, 9183, 7242
Program Element Code(s):	7308

ABSTRACT

The outbreaks of many infectious diseases display pronounced seasonal and interannual (year to year) variation. To date, investigations of the role of environmental factors including climatic ones, have not significantly progressed beyond simple correlative analyses. This project develops quantitative approaches to address the role of climate and other environmental factors in the population dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly those with temporary (short-lived) immunity and free-living infectious stages. The work focuses on cholera in its main endemic region (NE India and Bangladesh), but also other regions of Asia (Vietnam) and Africa (Mozambique). Its ultimate aim is to develop quantitative scenarios for cholera under climate change, by combining results on disease-environmental couplings with climate models.The applicability of the developed quantitative approaches to other diseases (particularly malaria and other vector borne pathogens) will be examined.

The global climate is changing. The most likely avenues for impacts on disease dynamics are through concomitant changes in the seasonal environmental variables that drive transmission, and through changes in the dominant (interannual) modes of variability (e.g. ENSO) that are observed in the current climate. Neither mechanism can be understood without a solid understanding of how climate variability has influenced disease patterns in the past. Extensive spatial and temporal cholera records provide an opportunity to address such understanding for an infectious disease remaining a public health problem around the globe, particularly in Asia but also Africa, for which the role of the environment is an important open question.

PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH

Altizer SA; Dobson AP; Hosseini P; Hudson PJ; Pascual M; Rohani P.. "Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases.," Ecology Letters, v.9, 2006, p. 467.

Harvell CD; Aronson R; Baron N; Cornell J; Dobson A; Ellner S; Gerber L; Kim K; Kuris A; McCallum H; Lafferty K; McKay B; Porter J; Pascual M; Smith G; Sutherland K; Ward J.. "The rising tide of ocean diseases: unsolved problems and research priorities.," Frontiers in Ecology, v.2, 2004, p. 375.

Hudson PJ; Cattadori I; Boag B; Dobson AP.. "Climate disruption and parasite-host dynamics: patterns and processes associated with warming and the frequency of extreme climatic events.," Journal of Helminthology, v.80, 2006, p. 1.

Pascual M; Dobson AP.. "Seasonal patterns of infectious disease," PLOS Medicine, v.2, 2005, p. 19.

Pascual M; Koelle K; Dobson AP.. "Hyperinfectivity in cholera: a new mechanism for an old epidemiological model?," PLOS Medicine, v.3, 2006, p. 00931.

Ruiz-Moreno D; Pascual M; Bouma M; Dobson AP; Cash B.. "Cholera seasonality in Madras (1901-1940: Dual role for rainfall in endemic and epidemic regions.," EcoHealth, v.4, 2007, p. 52.

Smith KF; Dobson AP; McKenzie FE; Real LA; Smith DL; Wilson ML.. "Ecological theory to enhance infectious disease control and public health policy.," Frontiers in Ecology, v.3, 2005, p. 29.

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