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Award Abstract #0430120
EID: Collaborative Research: The Interplay of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Factors in Epidemiological Dynamics: Cholera as a Case Study
| NSF Org: |
EF
Emerging Frontiers
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| Initial Amendment Date: |
September 13, 2004 |
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| Latest Amendment Date: |
September 13, 2004 |
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| Award Number: |
0430120 |
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| Award Instrument: |
Standard Grant |
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| Program Manager: |
Samuel M. Scheiner
EF Emerging Frontiers
BIO Directorate for Biological Sciences
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| Start Date: |
September 15, 2004 |
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| Expires: |
August 31, 2008 (Estimated) |
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| Awarded Amount to Date: |
$477577 |
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| Investigator(s): |
Mercedes Pascual pascual@umich.edu (Principal Investigator)
Edward Ionides (Co-Principal Investigator)
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| Sponsor: |
University of Michigan Ann Arbor
3003 South State St.
Ann Arbor, MI 48109 734/764-1817
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| NSF Program(s): |
BE-UF: ECOL OF INFECTIOUS DISE
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| Field Application(s): |
0116000 Human Subjects
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| Program Reference Code(s): |
BIOT, 9183, 7242
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| Program Element Code(s): |
7308
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ABSTRACT
The outbreaks of many infectious diseases display pronounced seasonal and interannual (year to year) variation. To date, investigations of the role of environmental factors including climatic ones, have not significantly progressed beyond simple correlative analyses. This project develops quantitative approaches to address the role of climate and other environmental factors in the population dynamics of infectious diseases, particularly those with temporary (short-lived) immunity and free-living infectious stages. The work focuses on cholera in its main endemic region (NE India and Bangladesh), but also other regions of Asia (Vietnam) and Africa (Mozambique). Its ultimate aim is to develop quantitative scenarios for cholera under climate change, by combining results on disease-environmental couplings with climate models.The applicability of the developed quantitative approaches to other diseases (particularly malaria and other vector borne pathogens) will be examined.
The global climate is changing. The most likely avenues for impacts on disease dynamics are through concomitant changes in the seasonal environmental variables that drive transmission, and through changes in the dominant (interannual) modes of variability (e.g. ENSO) that are observed in the current climate. Neither mechanism can be understood without a solid understanding of how climate variability has influenced disease patterns in the past. Extensive spatial and temporal cholera records provide an opportunity to address such understanding for an infectious disease remaining a public health problem around the globe, particularly in Asia but also Africa, for which the role of the environment is an important open question.
PUBLICATIONS PRODUCED AS A RESULT OF THIS RESEARCH
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Altizer, S., A. P. Dobson, P. Hosseini, P. J. Hudson, M. Pascual, and P. Rohani.. "Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases.," Ecology Letters, v.9, 2006, p. 467.
Cash, B. A., X. Rodó and J. L. Kinter III,. "Links between tropical Pacific SST and the regional climate of Bangladesh: Role of the eastern and central tropical Pacific.," COLA Technical Report, 2006, p. 1.
Chaves L.F. and M. Pascual. "Climate cycles and forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a non-stationary vector borne disease.," Public Library of Science (PloS) Medicine, v.3(8), 2006, p. 1320.
Chaves, L.F., Cohen JM, Pascual M, Wilson ML.. "Social Exclusion Modifies Climate and Deforestation Impacts on a Vector-Borne Disease," PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, v.2(2), 2008, p. e176.
Emch, M.; Feldacker, C.; Islam, M.S.; Ali, M.. "Seasonality of cholera from 1974 to 2005: a review of global patterns.," International Journal of Health Geographics., v.7(31), 2008, p. 1.
Emch, M.; Feldacker, C.; Yunus, M.; Streatfield, P.K.; Thiem, VD; Canh, DG; Ali, M.. "Local environmental drivers of cholera in Bangladesh and Vietnam.," American Journal of Tropical Medicine & Hygiene., v.78(5), 2008, p. 823.
Ionides, E. L., Breto, C. and King, A. A. "Inference for nonlinear dynamical systems.," PNAS, v.103, 2006, p. 18438.
King, A.A., E.L. Ionides, M. Pascual and M.J. Bouma.. "Inapparent infections and cholera dynamics.," Nature, v.454, 2008, p. 877.
Koelle, K., X. Rodó, M. Pascual, Md. Yunus, and G. Mostafa.. "Refractory periods to climate forcing in cholera dynamics," Nature, v.436(4), 2005, p. 696.
Pascual M., J. Ahumada, L.F. Chaves, X. Rodó, and M. Bouma.. "Malaria resurgence in East African Highlands: temperature trends revisited," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, v.103(15), 2006, p. 5829.
Pascual, M., B. Cazelles, M.J. Bouma, L.F. Chaves, and K. Koelle.. "Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and climate variability in an East African highland.," Proc. R. Soc. London B, v.275, 2008, p. 123.
Pascual, M., L.F. Chaves, X. Rodo, B. Cash and Md. Yunus.. "Predictability of endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics.," Climate Research, v.36, 2008, p. 131.
Rodó, X. and M.A. Rodriguez-Arias. "Detecting transitory processes in the climate system with the scale-Dependent Correlation (SDC) Analysis: An application to remote El Niño forcings," Climate Dynamics, v.27, 2006, p. 441.
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