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New mathematical models predict formation of crime hotspots and gives clues for police strategies.
Researchers at UCLA and University of California, Irvine say crime hotspots form in two ways--either when small spikes in crime grow and spread, or when a large spike in crime pulls offenders to a specific location. Shown here on the left is a two-dimensional discrete simulation of burglary hotspots in an 18 x 18 km. area of the San Fernando Valley, Los Angeles. On the right is a spatial distribution of crimes. The researchers teamed up with the Los Angeles Police Department to analyze burglaries over the last 10 years. Model parameters are calibrated against housing density, and the models factor in true and simulated crime events.
Credit: UC Mathematical and Simulation Modeling of Crime Project
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