Press Release 09-187
Buried Coins Key to Roman Population Mystery?

University of Connecticut professor explains how coin hoards signal population size

Bundles of buried Roman coins indicate the intensity of the region's violence and political strife. Credit and Larger Version

October 5, 2009

View a video interview (clip1, clip2, clip3, clip4, clip5, clip6, clip7) with University of Connecticut theoretical biologist Peter Turchin.

University of Connecticut theoretical biologist Peter Turchin and Stanford University ancient historian Walter Scheidel recently developed a new method to estimate population trends in ancient Rome and waded into an intense, ongoing debate about whether the state's population increased or declined after the first century B.C.

Using the region's abundance of coin hoards, bundles of buried Roman coins that citizens hid to protect their savings during times of violence and political strife, the researchers determined that Rome's population declined after 100 B.C. and suggested that the alternative scenario of robust population growth was highly implausible.

Turchin and Scheidel applied a unique blend of quantitative modeling and empirical testing normally found in the natural sciences to reach their conclusion. They reasoned that in times of violence people tend to hide their valuables, which are later recovered unless the owners are killed or driven away. As a result, clumps of unrecovered coin hoards are an excellent indicator of intense internal warfare, which has direct impacts on population size.

Debates concerning the population of ancient Rome during the first century B.C. are important because if the minority of adherents, who hold to population growth scenarios are correct, then much of current Roman history would need to be rewritten and it would have enormous impacts on views of the economic potential and social structure of ancient Rome.

The Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences reports the research in this week's issue. The National Science Foundation supports the work.

Read more in the University of Connecticut press release at: http://today.uconn.edu/?p=5526.

-NSF-

Media Contacts
Bobbie Mixon, NSF (703) 292-8485 bmixon@nsf.gov
Colin Poitras, University of Connecticut (860) 486-4656 colin.poitras@uconn.edu

Program Contacts
Patricia E. White, NSF (703) 292-8762 pwhite@nsf.gov

Principal Investigators
Peter Turchin, University of Connecticut 860) 486-3603 Peter.Turchin@UConn.edu

The National Science Foundation (NSF) is an independent federal agency that supports fundamental research and education across all fields of science and engineering. In fiscal year (FY) 2009, its budget is $9.5 billion, which includes $3.0 billion provided through the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. NSF funds reach all 50 states through grants to over 1,900 universities and institutions. Each year, NSF receives about 44,400 competitive requests for funding, and makes over 11,500 new funding awards. NSF also awards over $400 million in professional and service contracts yearly.

 Get News Updates by Email 

Useful NSF Web Sites:
NSF Home Page: http://www.nsf.gov
NSF News: http://www.nsf.gov/news/
For the News Media: http://www.nsf.gov/news/newsroom.jsp
Science and Engineering Statistics: http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/
Awards Searches: http://www.nsf.gov/awardsearch/