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Environmental Science And Engineering For The 21st Century: The Role of the National Science Foundation [NSB 00-22, February 2000]
    
CONTENTS



Title Page

National Science Board

Foreword

Acknowledg-
ments


Executive
Summary


1     Introduction

2    The Larger Context

3    Scope of
NSF's Current
Environmental
Activities


4    Input Received About Unmet Needs and Opportunities

5    Findings and
Recom-
mendations


6    Conclusion

References



Appendix A

Appendix B

Appendix C

Appendix D

Appendix E

Appendix F

Appendix G



Final Page



  Box 1
  Box 2
  Box 3
  Box 4
  Box 5
  Box 6
  BOX 7
  Box 8
  Box 9
  Box 10
  Box 11
  Box 12
  Box 13




BOX 7.
STATISTICAL PREVENTION MODELS FOR WILDFIRE SUPPRESSION

Some of the most devastating natural disasters in the history of the United States have been caused by wildfires. Environmental statistical research models fire occurrence as a marked spatial-temporal point process whose conditional rate depends not only on the record of previous fires, but on other covariates including environmental factors such as temperature, altitude, humidity, precipitation, vegetation, and soil characteristics. Using advanced statistical research, investigators are constructing quantitative predictions of local fire hazard accompanied by estimates of uncertainties in these predictions. In particular, research in the Los Angeles basin will integrate these predicted hazards into detailed, regularly updated maps of risk that are available to the public. The strategy is to exploit local trends in fire occurrence and the relationships between the incidence of fires and other environmental factors. This basic research could have important public policy implications relating to more aggressive fire suppression and prescribed burning.

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