Estimating Procedure for 1993 and 1994
NSF 95-304


Estimating Procedure for 1993 and 1994

Federal Government
Industry
Universities and Colleges
Other Nonprofit Institutions
Sector Summary

To the greatest extent possible, this report incorporates data for 1993 and 1994 R&D programs that are presented in the administration's 1995 budget proposal. For example, the 1995 budget contains data on total R&D outlays and budget authority by agency and by character of work. However, the budget does not contain reliable estimates on the amount of Federal R&D funds received by each of the R&D performing economic sectors, but only the federally funded totals and funds received by universities and colleges. The detailed sector specific information is obtained from an NSF survey of Federal agencies' R&D obligations, which is collected after the President's proposed budget has been published. For this reason, some of the 1993 and 1994 Federal R&D data reported here are based on the administration's 1994 budget proposal.

R&D performance totals in National Patterns are estimated for each sector, by character of work, and by source of funds from surveys and time series extrapolation techniques, as follows.

Federal Government

Estimates are based on changes in intramural R&D obligations reported in Federal Funds. Federal Funds 1994 data reflect congressional appropriations, apportionment, and reprogramming decisions as of the third quarter of fiscal year (FY) 1994.

Industry

Estimates are based on (1) time series modeling for the Federal sector as a source of funds, supplemented by Federal obligations data reported in Federal Funds (NSF 94-328), and (2) a mail survey conducted by the independent Industrial Research Institute of R&D officials in the major R&D performing industries. Responses were received from 158 members of IRI contacted in August 1993. The IRI, which annually conducts this survey, is an association of approximately 260 R&D performing companies, with annual R&D expenditures ranging from around $1 million to over $6 billion. (Detailed results of the IRI survey may be found in Research Technology Management, vol. 37, No. 1, January-February 1994, pp. 15-17.) Previously, NSF had conducted its own survey of companies' planned R&D expenditures.

Universities and Colleges

Data for 1993 are actual R&D performance as reported by universities and college. Estimates for 1994 are based on (1) Federal obligations reported in Federal Funds (NSF 94-328 and unpublished updates) and (2) extrapolations of recent trends for each of the non Federal sources.

Other Nonprofit Institutions

Estimates for 1994 are based on (1) Federal obligations reported in Federal Funds (NSF 94-328 and unpublished updates) and (2) extrapolations of recent trends in R&D performance and funding within the industry and university sectors, as outlined in the preceding section, "Performer Reporting Basis."

Sector Summary

Table A-5 provides a concise listing of sectors for which performer reported data, source reported data, or a combination of the two are used; the general approaches adopted (for example, regression or time series techniques); and assumptions used in estimated national expenditures on R&D, basic research, applied research, and development, all of which are outlined above. The table includes such information for the current projection years (1993-94), for finalized data of recent years (1990-92), and for a historical reference year (1973).

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