| The U.S. S&E
labor market continues to grow, both in absolute numbers and as
a percentage of the total labor market. Although the most dramatic
growth has occurred in the IT sector, other areas of S&E employment
also have recorded strong growth over the past two decades.
In general, labor market conditions for individuals with S&E
degrees improved during the 1990s. (These conditions have always
been better than the conditions for college graduates as a whole.)
However, engineering and computer science occupations have been
unusually affected by the recent recession, causing the unemployment
rate for individuals in S&E occupations to reach a 20-year high
of 3.9 percent in 2002. Labor market conditions for new doctoral
degree recipients have also been good, according to most conventional
measures; for example, the vast majority of S&E doctorate holders
are employed and doing work relevant to their training. However,
these gains have come in the nonacademic sectors; that is, in nearly
all fields, a smaller percentage of recent doctoral degree recipients
obtained tenure-track positions.
The globalization of the S&E labor force continues to increase
as the location of S&E employment becomes more internationally
diverse and S&E workers become more internationally mobile.
These trends reinforce each other as R&D spending and business
investment crosses national borders in search of available talent,
as talented people cross borders in search of interesting and lucrative
work, and as employers recruit and move employees internationally.
Although these trends appear most strongly in the high-profile international
competition for IT workers, they affect every science and technology
area.
The rate of growth of the S&E labor force may decline rapidly
over the next decade due to the aging of individuals with S&E
educations, as the number of individuals with S&E degrees reaching
traditional retirement ages is expected to triple. If this slowdown
does occur, the rapid growth in R&D employment and spending
that the United States has experienced since World War II may not
be sustainable.
The growth rate of the S&E labor force would also be significantly
reduced if the United States becomes less successful in the increasing
international competition for immigrant and temporary nonimmigrant
scientists and engineers. Many countries are actively reducing barriers
to high-skilled immigrants entering their labor markets at the same
time that entry into the United States is becoming somewhat more
difficult.
Slowing of the S&E labor force growth would be a fundamental
change for the U.S. economy, possibly affecting both technological
change and economic growth. Some researchers have raised concerns
that other factors may even accentuate the trend (NSB
2003). Any sustained drop in S&E degree production would
produce not only a slowing of labor force growth, but also a long-term
decline in the S&E labor force.
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