Chapter 3: Science & Engineering Indicators 93
S&E Labor Market Conditions
A few years ago, reports of impending S& E personnel shortages were common.(Click here for footnote 5.) More recently, however, the focus has been on possible
surpluses, because the recession, downsizing of the defense industry (see "The Impact of Defense Downsizing on Technical Employment")
, and (to a lesser extent) immigrant scientists and engineers from the former
Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc countries are all currently disrupting the U.S. S& E labor market.
Predictions of shortages or surpluses of S& E personnel should be treated with caution. At any point in time, for any field, there may be shortages or surpluses. But in a free market economy, these
shortages or surpluses are eventually eliminated. U.S. labor markets are flexible--changes in supply and demand trigger fairly quick responses in terms of both degree production and mobility within the labor force. Moreover, employers can be expected
to deploy a number of strategies to avert a prospective labor shortage.(Click here for footnote 6.)
S& E labor markets are more flexible in some ways than those for other occupations. Scientists and engineers are generally highly trained and well-educated in analytically based fields. This background can serve them well in a wide array of
non-S& E occupations. An increasing number of scientists and engineers in fact have been pursuing careers in business, law, and other professions--occupations that have a growing need for their expertise (Holden
1991).
S& E labor markets are also less flexible in some ways than those for other occupations due in part to the long educational pipeline. When the demand for S& E personnel exceeds the supply, employers usually increase salary levels in an effort
to attract the workers they need. Rising salaries tend to induce more students to study in fields with shortages, thus eventually increasing supply. But because of the time it takes to complete a formal education, the demand/supply imbalance may
persist for several years, stretching out even longer if the unmet need is for doctoral scientists and engineers.
Footnote 5:
For example, Atkinson (1990) noted that "all the models that are used to project supply and demand for scientists and engineers, although differing on quantitative details, come to the same fundamental conclusion: that
unless corrective actions are taken immediately, all sectors of society will begin to experience shortages of scientists and engineers in the next 4 to 6 years, with shortages becoming significant during the early years of the next century." And, in
1989, 67 percent of the member companies responding to an Aerospace Industries Association survey reported current shortages of scientists and engineers; 85 percent anticipated shortages in the future (Aerospace Industries
Association 1989).
Footnote 6:
For example, they can lower hiring standards by eliminating advanced degree requirements, employing individuals trained in related fields, or assigning more responsibilities to technicians. In industry in particular, transferring individuals from one
specialty to another, revising degree requirements for particular positions, and retaining are routine. Employers can also increase their hiring of immigrants, or they can move their operations offshore to countries that have a plentiful supply of
workers with the skills they need.
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