Average Versus Marginal Effect, and Other Considerations

R&D returns can best be understood when a distinction is drawn between an average return and a marginal return. The average return to expenditure on scientific research is the total change in earnings divided by the total amount spent on research. The marginal return is the change in earnings attributable to an additional dollar spent on research, above and beyond what has already been spent. If a society employs the very best scientists first, and conducts research in the most worthwhile areas first, then the average return will be higher than the marginal return. (See Illustration of the Difference Between Average and Marginal Effects of Research.)

Statistics on the economic growth of high-tech industries might reflect the investment effects of R&D. For instance, jobs in the United States supported by exports of high-technology manufacturing industries grew from 1.4 million in 1983 to 2.3 million in 1992. Total employment supported by exports from all manufacturing industries grew at roughly the same rate, from 3.5 million in 1983 to 5.7 million in 1992 (Davis, 1995; p. 32). For services, high-tech industrial categories have not been as well established, but statistics defined in terms of specific high-tech products, like computers, may best reflect the growth of high-technology industries. As an example, the share of computers in total investments in durable equipment (by producers) rose from less than 1 percent in 1960 to 11 percent in 1992 (Griliches, 1994).

The effects of scientific research have not always been captured well by aggregate statistics on the growth of industrial groups. For instance, the bottom line for investors is more often profitability than growth, and the two may be distantly related when there is substantial cost reduction through scientific advances in process innovation. For example, an industry that employs more robots in its factories, and replaces factory labor, may be able to produce its goods more cheaply. On paper, it may seem to be "declining" in terms of lower revenues (due to price reductions) and in terms of lower employment, yet, by making profitable use of technology, it may be successful in the eyes of stockholders.


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