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The Dynamics of U.S. Population Change

Profound changes are likely to occur in the composition of the U.S. population over the next half-century. Different fertility rates, immigration patterns, and age distributions-and thus death rates-of population subgroups point to a 21st century population profile that contrasts sharply with that of the 20th. [7]
Under the "middle series" of assumptions used by researchers at the Bureau of the Census, the total non-Hispanic white proportion of the U.S. population would decline from 76 percent in 1990 to 53 percent in 2050. But, within this gradual overall trend are more dramatic anticipated changes. For example, by 2012 more blacks than non-Hispanic whites would be added to the population each year. In 2030, the non-Hispanic white population would be less than half of the under-18 population, while it would still make up 75 percent of those over 65.
Around 2030 the total elementary school-aged cohort of the United States would be about equally divided between non-Hispanic whites and all other racial/ethnic groups combined. (See figure 1-9.) Over the following 20 years, American Indians, Asians and Pacific Islanders, Hispanics of all races, and blacks would together far outnumber the total white non-Hispanic population of elementary school children, high school students, and new entrants into college, the workforce, and the military.

Figure 1-9


7. This discussion relies exclusively on Day 1993, which also contains the detailed methodology underlying the projections. Up arrow
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