A critical challenge for humanity is to ensure that the benefits we receive from the environment, such as water supply, food production, and flood protection, are sustained into a future that will likely be very different than the one we know today. Changes in climate, land use and management, the built environment, and human demands place considerable pressure on the ecosystems we depend on. Our research project used a multidisciplinary approach – scenario analysis, model experiments, field studies, and regional governance evaluation – to help address this challenge with a place-based investigation of an urbanizing, agricultural watershed (Yahara River) in southern Wisconsin, USA. A highlight of our project was the development of four plausible and contrasting scenarios that describe changes in climate, land, and human demands to 2070 and their environmental consequences. The scenarios start with stories developed using local community input and are then paired with a novel biophysical modeling suite that results in a publicly-accessible, yet quantitative, set of integrated scenarios. The biophysical model is capable of simulating the flow of water, energy, carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus from land to water to estimate relevant environmental outcomes such as food production, water quality and supply, and flooding. A major conclusion of the scenario analysis is that substantial tradeoffs exist across scenarios. In addition, while major landscape changes can eventually lead to improved water quality, the legacy of agriculture in the form of accumulated soil nutrients, increased rainfall severity, and aquatic invasive species can all substantially delay improvement. Additional field studies also revealed how the city of Madison’s urban heat island changes across seasons and its influence on public health and urban ecosystems. Finally, regional governance evaluation investigated the history of water quality improvement and revealed a mismatch between areas where current water quality policies apply and areas in need of the most improvement.

The overarching outreach goal of our project was to encourage long-term thinking in decision-making and management of the benefits people derive from landscapes and water, or ecosystem services. Long-term thinking means considering the array of futures that could occur based on changes and choices faced today, which helps us prepare for potential surprises and be intentional with decisions that give us control over future outcomes. Our core message has been that long-term thinking is critical to building social and environmental resilience. We utilized a variety of outreach methods to realize our goal and spread our message, all of which are available at wsc.limnology.wisc.edu. To raise awareness and share scientific knowledge, we maintained a dynamic website, a blog, and a Twitter account, as well as created two video series – one providing an overview of water issues in the Yahara Watershed and the other summarizing the important lessons we learned from our research. We also disseminated press releases about our research to connect with media, wrote articles for external outlets to connect with audiences we don’t normally reach, and created research briefs and infographics for policy and management professionals. Another important product was a documentary produced by Wisconsin Public Television about our research, which was born of our partnership with them.  We also developed outreach initiatives to facilitate long-term thinking, which were based on our Yahara 2070 scenarios. One was a statewide writing contest, which called for stories about positive futures for water and people, an effort to stimulate people’s imagination about what is possible and desirable for the future. Another was a series of workshops and, ultimately, a set of discussion guides, which were designed to create space and structure for conversations about the future of water and people. They are intended to facilitate the adoption of long-term thinking, based in research showing the importance of interpersonal communication on influencing attitudes and actions. Moreover, the Yahara 2070 scenarios employed narrative storytelling and art to facilitate future thinking among a broad public. In addition to these outreach products, critical to our impact has been the relationships and partnerships we have formed with individual and organizational stakeholders in the region, which have included the nonprofit, government, and private sectors.

Last Modified: 01/09/2017
Modified by: Christopher Kucharik