The key question guiding the project was to examine the variation that exists in geopolitical attitudes and orientations among the countries and populations in the post-Soviet states more than a quarter century after the Soviet collapse, considering social, economic, political, and geographic factors.  Initiated in 2019 with the first wave of 11 panel surveys in the syudy location, both formal states (e.g. Kazakhstan) and informal 'de facto' states (e.g. Abkhazia), the project planned a second wave in 2021.  This was postponed to 2024 due to the Covid 19 pandemic which stopped all face-to-face interviewing and then the Russian invasion of Ukraine impeded work in that country and necessitated a switch to telephone interviewing.   In all, the PIs collected more than 25000 survey responses, about one-third of which are repeated surveys of the same people which allows a careful comparison of their changing attitudes and beliefs.

 By surveying the same respondents before and after the invasion (and supplementing the second wave to account for unreachable respondents to assure a representative national sample), the effects of the geopolitical earthquate can be carefully documented as is evident in the figurAmong the most dramatic results is the evident turn to the West in Ukraine as a result of the invasion in the comparison of wave 1 and wave 2 answers.   More broadly, a comparison of geopolitical attitudes towards Russia show a large variation in the answers of the first survey wave, conducted in late 2019 and early 2020.   Firmly oriented to the West are respondents in Georgia and Ukraine, while those in Belarus are strongly oriented to Russia.  People in Kazakhstan and Armenia were more disposed to Russia as were respondents in the Russian-supported 'de facto' states of Transnistria and Abkhazia, as well as those in the Russian-annexed peninsula of Crimea (legally part of Ukraine).  Respondents in Moldova and Nagorno-Karabakh were split in their orientations.  

The project probed attitudes and preferences in the Donbas region of Ukraine in the weeks before the full scale invasion from Russia.  There attitudes differed markedely in both parts of the divided Donbas region of Ukraine on the eve of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022. The research employs a methodological innovation for surveys in the Donbas by having the same telephone survey implemented by three different survey agencies: one based in Ukraine, one based in Russia and one based in the UK. Comparing similarities and differences in results identify key effects induced by the origin of phone calls. The question of preference for final status in Ukraine or Russia was asked in all four samples.  The results are very similar for the two samples in the government-controlled territories of Donbas but there are significant differences between the Ukrainian and Russian survey companies’ results in the non-government controlled area (separatist republics). The results reflect a situational response due partly to important demographic differences in the composition of the sub-samples in a very tense environment that had experienced conflict since 2014.  It also raises substantive questions about the reliability of survey responses on sensitive questions in conflict zones.   

Often mooted as a determinant of post-Soviet attitudes is geographic and cultural proximity to Russia, in particular whether they see themselves as part of a Russian civilization, consider the future of their country as oriented towards Russia, or use Russian language in their everyday lives.   Key to the influence of historical events is the beliefs about World War II. A more favorable view on a Russian-promoted narrative about historical events and figures, while taking into account how their views of the past may be shaped by age, gender, socioeconomic background, and (il)liberal values. People who are geopolitically oriented towards Russia are more likely to perceive their past in line with the Russian-promoted narrative, though the findings are less consistent when it comes to measures for closer cultural proximity.

Given the immense importance of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there remains the research interest in considering this seismic geopolitical event as a 'treatment' on the attitudes of people in the Near Abroad towards Vladimir Putin and the relations of their home countries with Russia.  Thus the project, inadvertently, can be views as a kind of pseudo-experimental design to examine the effects of this Russian action on long-standing beliefs and attitudes.  While people in Georgia, Moldova, Armenia and Ukraine have shown a significant pro-West shift, Belarussians remain firmly anchored to Russian-narratives and views in Kazakhstan are more mixed and uncertain.  The full impact and final outcome of the geopolitical earthquake caused by Russia's invasion of February 2022 is as yet unknown but this project has demonstrated an important swing towards Western narratives and policies.

Last Modified: 03/30/2024
Modified by: John V O'loughlin