Title : IAIOES09 REPORT ON THE IAI WORKSHOP ON ENSO AND INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY Type : IAI Newsletter NSF Org: GEO Date : August 8, 1995 File : iaioes08 THE INTER-AMERICAN INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE RESEARCH REPORT ON THE IAI WORKSHOP ON ENSO AND INTERANNUAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY July 12-15, 1994 Lima, Peru TABLE OF CONTENTS =46OREWORD 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 3 =09 =09 I. ENSO - A GLOBAL CONCERN 7 1. Effects of ENSO 7 =09 2. Why We Study It 8 =09 3. The IAI Role 9 =09 II. THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE 11 1. Early Modeling Attempts 15 =09 2. The Future of Forecasting 16 =09 =09 III. CONCERNS AND DIFFICULTIES 19 IV. ISSUES AND PRIORITIES 21 1. The Need for a Central Data Repository 22 2. Advancing the Scientific Agenda 22 3. Linkages with Other Programs 23 V. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION 25 1. Research Recommendations 25 =09 2. Assessment and Application 28 3. Data Collection and Management 29 4. Modeling and Forecasting 33 5. Human Dimensions 34 VI. REFERENCES 36 APPENDIX 1: IAI Initial Scientific Themes 39 APPENDIX 2: Acronyms 40 APPENDIX 3: Workshop Participants 42 =46OREWORD This report details the results of a scientific workshop held on the subject of the El Ni=F1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on July 12-15 in Lima, Peru. Attending and contributing to the workshop were 74 people, most of them with scientific training, from 12 member countries of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI). The purpose of the workshop was to coordinate activities involved with the documentation and prediction of interannual climate variability in the Americas, and to outline plans for the identification and the assessment needs of potential climate forecast users. The workshop suggested an agenda for inter-American study and cooperation that might lead to the successful application of forecasts of ENSO-related climate variability. The IAI recognizes that many factors contribute to interannual climate variability, but the Institute has chosen to encourage study of ENSO as a principal determiner of that variability, and to take advantage of the ENSO predictability factor. The Inter-American Institute, which sponsored the workshop, was created in May of 1992 to address the need for advanced study of regionally significant global change issues. The Institute is designed to evolve as a network of research facilities throughout the Americas which will augment research capabilities and promote education and training within the scientific fields most important to current and future global change research. Representati- ves of 16 nations have signed the agreement establishing the Institute. The agreement notes the importance of an evolving scientific agenda that reflects an appropriate balance among the biogeographic areas of scientific importance. It also stresses the need to address in an integral fashion the physical, economic, and social issues relating to global change. To identify the most pressing scientific questions and socioeconomic issues within those seven priority topics, a group of physical and social scientists met in Silver Spring, Maryland, in the United States on March 5-6, 1992. The resulting document, the Report of the Meeting of Scientific Experts, provides the basis for a series of seven workshops on scientific program development, intended to advance the science agenda of IAI. The ENSO workshop was the fifth held in the series. The previous four were: The Comparative Studies of Oceanic, Coastal, and Estuarine Processes in Temperate Zones (Montevideo, Uruguay), High Latitude Processes (Buenos Aires, Argentina), Ocean/Land/Atmosphere Interactions in the Inter-tropical Americas (Panam=E1 City, Panam=E1), and Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles (S=E3o Jos=E9 dos Campos, Brazil). The final two workshops will concern The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems (Durham, N.C., USA), and The Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity (Guadalajara, M=E9xico). =09 This report on the Lima workshop details the scientific research plans that propose observational strategies, lays down data management guidelines, and outlines the modeling developments needed to achieve the objectives of the workshop. It is only a plan, a guide to action. The next step, as the science plan states, is to develop an implementation plan or program for the topic. Our most sincere thanks to all who helped in the preparation of this report. Special acknowledgment must be given to members of the steering committee who helped organize the workshop. Steering committee members were: David Enfield, NOAA/AOML; Pablo Lagos, Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA; Mark Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observations; Michael Glantz, NCAR; and James Buizer, NOAA/OGP. Others in Lima who assisted in organization included: Hector Soldi, Guillermo Johnson, Alejandra Martinez, and Carlos Ere=F1o. Local institutions participating in organization of the workshop were the Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA, Direcci=F3n de Hidrograf=EDa y Navegaci=F3= n, Comit=E9 Peruano para el Cambio Global, Instituto del Mar del Per=FA, Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa e Hidrograf=EDa. Additionally, I would like to express my most sincere thanks to Dr. Robert Corell (National Science Foundation), Dr. Michael Hall, Lisa =46arrow and Claudia Nierenberg (NOAA/OGP) for their constant enthusiasm and support during the development of this workshop. =46inally, I would like to acknowledge the commitment, dedication and enthusiasm of my staff members, Raquel Gomes, Marcella Ohira and D=E9lia Levandoski, without whose support in preparing this report would have been impossible to accomplish. =09 Rub=E9n Lara Lara IAI Executive Scientist EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Peruvian fishermen have been saying for years that a large pool of warm water exists far out to sea and that occasionally it moves closer to land and stays there for several months. Because this near-shore warming typically begins around Christmas they called the event, "El Ni=F1o," the Spanish word for the Christ child. They knew the warm water intrusion adversely affected the rich fishing grounds they enjoyed in the normal cold water upwellings along the coast. Over the past decade the scientific world has realized that the event also affects climate on a global basis, causing damaging floods in normally dry areas, bringing drought to areas that usually experience adequate rainfall. Because the warming that it brings originates in the tropics, they now refer to the phenomenon as the El Ni=F1o Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. To define a scientific agenda for further investigation of ENSO, the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI) brought together more than 40 scientists from 13 countries of the Americas in the Peruvian capital. In plenary sessions and work groups they attempted to design a science plan to accomplish the following: (a) increase the understanding of the ENSO phenomenon and related climate variability; (b) improve forecasting of climate at season to interannual time scales; (c) maximize the utility of this information for affected societies of the region. Knowledge about ENSO processes has increased rapidly in recent years, it was pointed out in plenary, but forecasting of El Ni=F1o events remains in the early stages of development. ENSO appears in an irregular cycle, recurring at intervals of three to seven years. Socioeconomic effects can be disastrous, as witnessed by the collapse of the once-dominant Peruvian fishing industry after the event of 1972- 73. The ENSO of 1982-83 caused crop losses in several countries estimated at more than US$13 billion, and some two thousand deaths. Many of these losses could be avoided by improved forecasting, which would be enhanced by additional data relating to ENSO events. Nations highly affected by El Ni=F1o, such as Peru and Brazil, have already seen socioeconomic impacts alleviated by providing predictive information to farmers and fishermen. The need for improved communication was a dominant theme throughout the workshop. Since it would be extremely difficult and costly for any one country to gather all the information necessary to fully understand climate variability, the pooling of scientific information and cooperation in research and training becomes essential. Recognizing this need for a regional approach, the IAI offered its resources to assist in the following: (a) scientific cooperation between national laboratories and universities; (b) complimentary use of infrastructure and expertise; (c) creation of an inter-American communication network; (d) access to field experiments and data collection; and (e) use of the IAI to promote research and funding. Participants also discussed the need for improved communication between the scientific world and the general public and policy makers. Without this communication the socioeconomic importance of scientific knowledge may not be addressed, and adequate preventative action may not be taken. Meeting in four separate working groups and comparing their discussions periodically in plenaries, participants determined that the following questions require further investigation by the scientific community: (1) What are the most important variables for inter-American climate studies? What different types of data included in such variables are worthy of research work? (2) Which and what type of institutions possess such data? (3) In what form are data available? What difficulties do institutions face in trying to digitize and process data? (4) Which institutions are capable of storing different types of data and making it available to the community? (5) What are the "filters" or scientific specifications necessary to determi= ne which data should be included? Since improved data collection is critical to forecasting of ENSO events, participants made the following recommendations: (1) That the following data be assembled and completed and placed in electronic files : Climate/Surface: air temperature, specific humidity, sea level pressure, wind, precipitation, and solar radiation. Altitude: winds, wind temperature, pressure and humidity in standard levels (radio waves and radio wind waves). Hydrological: river flows and lakes and reservoir levels. Oceanic: thermal profile data through buoys and drifting buoys, fisheries statistics and marine biology. Renewable Marine Resources: registry of selected plankton and chlorophyll series from fixed stations and cruise data; fisheries statistics of pelagic and demersal debarkations. Some selected series of indicator species. Inventories should be done of existing species and their condition. (2) That those series with the greatest extension in time be identified, and to ensure that they are placed in an easily accessible electronic file. (3) That the IAI coordinate with the U.S. and European agencies to obtain a free anonymous access for hemispheric researchers to use existing large scale files. (4) In the case of meteorological/climatological and altitude data, lesser duration station data should be obtained also, wherever these are most complete from 1980 to the present, in order to improve geographical coverage in the modern time. (5) Ways should be found to eliminate excessive costs for extracting certain data from some organizations. In summary, the groups made the following suggestions for generally advancing scientific information about ENSO: * increase the empirical studies to advance the understanding of the year to year climate variability. * increase the empirical studies to develop predictive knowledge of the influence of climate variability on socioeconomic activities. * encourage an interdisciplinary approach to ENSO that looks not only at temperatures and rainfall but also socioeconomic impacts. * include social scientists in the study of ENSO so they can serve as liais= on between science, the general public, and decision-makers. * create and circulate a catalogue of models, modelers, and researchers so scientists become aware of available information. * standardize data collection for easierexchange, and digitize data to increase speed of compilation. * circulate a questionnaire that helps determine the data needs of various areas within the region. * create a central data bank and circulate information from it through Internet. * examine long-term data from in situ observations and paleoclimatic time series. * improve climatic station data, mainly meteorological and hydrological. All groups agreed that the role of the IAI should be that of a catalyst in promoting regional cooperation through further workshops and cross-border visitations, by helping improve communication, and by initiating education and training programs to increase the numbers of skilled personnel. "IAI is the glue that can pull all this together and make= it stick," was one comment. I. ENSO--A GLOBAL CONCERN Local fishermen off the coast of Peru have long known of the regular onset of warm ocean temperatures during the calendar months December and January of each year. The fishermen originally named this phenomenon "El Ni=F1o," the Christ child, in recognition of its occurrence during the Christmas season. The magnitude of the ocean surface temperature warming varies from one year to the next, and over time the term "El Ni=F1o" has come to describe just the years in which the ocean temperatures in these calendar months are much warmer than normal. In the past several decades, scientific studies have provided a more comprehensive picture of the "El Ni=F1o" phenomenon. Years with abnormally warm ocean surface temperatures along the Peruvian coast are associated with abnormally warm surface temperatures up and down the Pacific coast of the Americas and across the equatorial Pacific from Ecuador to the dateline. The changes in the equatorial Pacific Ocean surface temperatures influence the distribution of organized precipitation over this ocean basin, and give rise to a pattern of abnormal surface pressures that spans the tropics, the "Southern Oscillation". Associated changes in the atmospheric surface winds over the Pacific Ocean influence the ocean circulation in this ocean basin, which acts to further modify the ocean surface temperatures. The name given to this phenomenon, "El Ni=F1o Southern Oscillation (ENSO), includes the names for both the primary oceanic and atmosphere manifestations of this phenomenon, and the use of both names reflects the importance of the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere. Some earlier and detailed description of the phenomenon can be found in the works of Horel and Wallace (1981); Rasmusson and Carpenter (1982); Kousky et al., (1984); Ropelewski and Halpert (1987); and Philander (1989). What are the effects of ENSO? Anyone who has taken a hot bath in an enclosed bathroom knows that water and the air above it interact when fluctuations in temperature occur. Run a hot bath and the room warms and the mirror mists over as moisture is carried aloft by the heated surface of the water. Similar mechanisms--and many more--are activated when an El Ni=F1o occurs. The warmer water surface and the atmosphere interact to cause anomalous wind and climate patterns, affecting weather over wide areas of the globe. Areas that are normally dry experience unusual and sometimes highly damaging amounts of rain. At the same time, areas accustomed to considerable rainfall experience debilitating drought. Why do we want to know more about ENSO? Climate affects virtually every aspect of human life. The ability of societies to adapt to climate has determined survivability since the beginning of time. Seasonal changes in climate in a particular region are generally understood by people living there. But dramatic shifts away from the expected patterns can cause extreme physical and economic hardship. Because extended periods of warmer water affect fish populations, the ENSO of 1972-73 contributed to the collapse of the Peruvian anchoveta fishing industry, which by tonnage had made Peru the number one fishing nation in the world. The ENSO of 1982-83, believed the most severe of this century, caused losses in several countries estimated at more than 13 billion U.S. dollars, and some two thousand deaths (Canby, 1984; Glantz, 1984). Northeastern Brazil, home to more than 20 million people, is often severely affected by droughts, while southern Brazil experiences damaging floods, and ENSO events appear to play a part in these anomalies. Floods also impact Paraguay, Uruguay and northern Argentina during an ENSO event, as do flash floods in the coastal plains region of northern Peru and southern Ecuador. Anomalously wet conditions are typical along the subtropical west coast (central Chile) during the austral winter. Contrasting with these climate anomalies, droughts tend to occur in northern South America and in the Altiplano region, during major ENSO episodes. Precipitation and temperature also drive mosquito production, so ENSO-related variability can cause increases in diseases such as dengue fever, yellow fever, and malaria. Drought removes some of the predators of rodents, causing not only an increase of rodent-driven diseases but increased damage to cereal crops. Understanding and recognizing the mechanisms that lead up to an ENSO event could aid in the prediction of such occurrences, thereby alleviating much suffering and economic hardship. By applying updated information related to climate variability and its effects, governments can advise their citizens of upcoming climatic changes, and industries can prepare for possible variations in precipitation and temperature. With advice passed on through public television and radio networks, farmers can plan the types of crops and seeds they should plant in the coming growing season, according to the climate expected. Industries dependent upon water use can know what water resources might be available. Since water temperature affects fish patterns, fishermen and fishing industries can anticipate what catch they might expect, thus optimizing the use of fuel and fishing arts and maximizing the human effort. If necessary, regulatory agencies can take measures to protect spawning stocks, thus avoiding the demise of commercially important populations. The advantages of climate predictions have already been demonstrated. Peru's GNP and the gross value for the agriculture sector dropped drastically following the 1982-83 episode, but not during an event of 1986-87 after farmers were advised to expect below-normal precipitation (Lagos and Buizer, 1992). With no warning in 1987, grain production in Brazil's state of Cear=E1 dropped to 15 per cent of the normal production; However, when ENSO forecasts and monitoring were applied to decision-making processes in 1991-92, grain production was 82 per cent of mean production. Although some successful predictions have occurred, gaps remain in understanding of the phenomena, gaps that might be filled with more widespread reporting of temperature and rainfall variations, and their application to more sophisticated and effective prediction procedures. The gathering of critical information can be greatly facilitated by a region= al cooperative approach between nations. What is the role of IAI in understanding ENSO? It would be extremely difficult and costly for any one country to gather all the information necessary to understand and predict climate variability. Several countries are currently employing programs that trace temperature and rainfall patterns throughout a given area. Since the effects of climate variation cross geopolitical borders, the pooling of information can enhance the data input into numerical models aimed at predicting climate change, and help determine the influences of topography and land-sea contrasts. In recognition of the importance of a regional approach to the ENSO phenomenon, the IAI seeks to promote the open exchange of scientific data currently available, to encourage the gathering of new data and information through the Institute's research programs, and to increase the regional capacity for data collection and analysis through education and training programs. The IAI seeks to assist its member states in achieving the "critical mass" of local infrastructures--and the necessary regional lin= ks between them--to successfully prosecute climate change research and extend it to economically and socially relevant applications. This workshop itself was designed to facilitate the development of multinational, interdisciplinary linkages within scientific communities throughout the Americas that seek to know more about ENSO, and to define the research priorities that will further that understanding. II. THE CURRENT STATE OF KNOWLEDGE Understanding of the ENSO phenomenon has improved substantially over the past decade. Improved techniques for monitoring the ocean and the atmosphere along with advances in dynamical modeling have allowed science to better perceive how the coupled ocean-atmosphere system works in producing ENSO-related variability. That perception has led to skillful forecasts of warm and cold episodes up to a year or so in advance. The seminal figure in defining the role of the atmosphere in the ENSO was Sir Gilbert Walker, the Director-General of Observatories in India early in this century. Aware of the swings of sea level pressure from South America to the Indian-Australian region and back over a period of several years, he added correlates from all over the globe. Heavy rainfall in the central equatorial Pacific, he noticed, occurred while drought was taking place in India. Warm winters in southwestern Canada contrasted with cold ones in the southeastern U.S. His methods were strictly empirical, and the climate record for subsequent years has corroborated many of the relationships he documented. Following Walker's work, key insights were made by a prominent Norwegian meteorologist, Jacob Bjerknes. He grasped that the ENSO is to be understood neither as an atmospheric nor an oceanic phenomenon, but as a phenomenon depending intrinsically on the interaction between the atmosphere and the ocean (Bjerknes, 1966; 1967). A theory of ENSO would therefore accurately describe how the atmospheric winds change the sea surface temperature (SST) which is simultaneously producing changes in the atmospheric winds. The Southern Oscillation (SO) is an irregular cycle, with extremes recurring at intervals of 3 to 7 years. Among the more important impacts are those which arise from variations in the regional precipitation regimes of North, Central, and South America. The SO can appear in either of two phases, the warm phase, or a cold phase known as El Ni=F1a, and the climate anomalies brought on by each are essentially the opposite of those brought on by the other phase. In other words, if a warm phase brings excessive rain to a certain area, a cold phase will usually bring drought. The correspondence is not perfect, however, because other factors also come into play, and because random variability also occurs. Though each ENSO event has its own peculiarities, most seem to follow a general pattern. At an early stage, anomalously warm surface waters are found in the western equatorial Pacific. The prevailing westward blowing trade winds drag the surface water along with them, so the thermocline, or dividing line between the warm surface water and the cold water beneath, had become quite deep to the west and shallow to the east. Associated with the warm surface temperatures in the west is an increase in convective activity, and at a certain stage, a persistent slackening of the trade winds. With the lessening of pressure from the trades, the warm sea surface tilts eastward in a Kelvin wave, akin to sloshing in a bathtub. The result is a dramatic and expansive warming of the tropical Pacific Ocean from the dateline to the South American coast, and spreading northward to Alaska and southward to Chile along the coastline of the Americas. Because the warmest temperatures move eastward, further disruption of the trade winds occur. Very heavy rains fall in normally arid regions of Peru and Ecuador, while droughts are experienced in Australia and anomalous tropical cyclones occur in regions such as French Polynesia and Hawaii. Farther away, there are often disruptions of the Indian monsoon and the seasonal rains of northeast Brazil. In severe instances, regional climates over much of East Asia, Nort= h America, and Africa are affected. Figure 1 documents the physical scale of typical fluctuations in the atmosphere during January through May of an ENSO event. The shading indicates the regions over the oceans which experience greater than normal precipitation during an ENSO , and the contour field indicates a tendency for the increased temperatures in the lower atmosphere poleward and eastward of the enhanced precipitation. Consistent with the temperature fluctuations are deviations in mid-level atmospheric winds, with the sense of the wind deviations over the IAI region indicated by the arrows. These anomalies tend to be most notable in the respective winter seasons of the northern and southern hemispheres. The wind deviations over the IAI region modify the regular seasonal cycle over the region to produce variations in precipitation or surface temperatures that directly affect citizens of the IAI countries. Many of th= e details of the relationship between ENSO and the atmospheric circulation over the IAI countries in this and other calendar months remain to be elucidated by researchers. (The data sets employed to construct this figure are of manageable size and are available free-of-charge to IAI researchers for detailed studies of the conditions in their region) Fig. 1 =09 Figure 2 indicates regions of extreme precipitation and surface temperature conditions that are linked with the Pacific SST distribution during the calendar months December, January, and February of ENSO events. The precipitation anomalies may not occur in those three months, but be lagged; a documentation of the influence of ENSO on precipitation and surface temperature with finer spatial resolution in the IAI countries and for all seasons is a goal of the IAI (Some of the relationshi= ps indicated in Fig. 2 are derived on the basis of only a few time series, and may not be representative of the climate tendencies over broad regions of each country). This project will require the development of historical time series (of 30 years' length or more) of the key climate variables in the IAI countries, and the sharing of observations between countries to document the spatial scale of these climate anomalies. =09 Fig. 2 Further research activities are being developed concerning other regional processes that contribute to inter-annual climate variability= , including land-surface processes. An example is the relationship between northeast Brazil precipitation in its rainy season (February through May) and simultaneous Atlantic Ocean surface temperatures. Figure 3 shows typical ocean surface temperature conditions over the Atlantic and eastern Pacific Oceans during a wetter than normal rainy season in northeast Brazil (see white X). In addition to the Pacific ENSO cycle, the conditions responsible for fluctuations in precipitation in northeast Brazil are also associated with changes occurring in the Atlantic Ocean and the overlying atmosphere as far away as the coast of Greenland. Similar studies relating regional precipitation amounts to ocean conditions need to be performed by researchers in other countries of the IAI, with an eye towards the possible planetary scale of the climate phenomena that affect their country. Fig. 3 The first model to successfully simulate ENSO, that of Cane et al., (1986) depicts in a simplified manner the evolution of the tropical Pacific Ocean and overlying atmosphere. One of the most significant results of these dynamical model simulations was the recurrence of ENSO at irregular intervals as a result of strictly internal processes, without any imposed perturbations. Analysis of the model helped in developing the now widely accepted theory that treats ENSO as an internal mode of oscillation of the coupled atmosphere-ocean system, perpetuated by a continuous imbalance between the tightly coupled surface winds and temperatures on the one hand, and the more sluggish oceanic subsurface heat reservoir on the other. This theory has a number of implications for the prediction of El Ni=F1o events. First is that, since the essential interactions take place in the tropical Pacific, data from that region alone may produce useful forecasts. Second, the memory of the coupled system must reside in the ocean. Anomalies in the atmosphere are dissipated far too quickly to persist from one El Ni=F1o event to the next. The surface la= yers of the ocean are also too transitory. Hence, the theory goes, the memory must be in the subsurface ocean thermal structure, with the crucial set of information for El Ni=F1o forecasts residing in the spatial variation of th= e depth of the thermocline in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Early Modeling Attempts In 1985 a group at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University at Palisades, New York, began experimenting with a model to simulate and also predict El Ni=F1o. The initial successes of the model, and the theory that evolved from it, argued for a deterministic origin of ENSO; that is, a systematic evolution throughout the cycle rather than a sequence of random events. However, even deterministic systems that are chaotic have limited predictability, and in this case the situation was made worse by a very poor observational base over vast regions of the tropical Pacific. Nevertheless, forecasts were made by utilizing observations of surface winds over the ocean, as far back as 1964. On the basis of these wind data they ran the ocean component of the model to generate currents, thermocline depths, and temperatures that served as initial conditions for forecasts, a necessary step because of the lack of direct observations of ocean variables. Each forecast then consisted of choosing th= e conditions corresponding to a particular time, and running the coupled model ahead to predict the evolution of the combined ocean-atmosphere model. By making predictions based on past periods they could compare forecasts direct with reality. The results showed the ability to predict El Ni=F1o events more than a year in advance. The model then successfully made its first actual prediction, of the El Ni=F1o event of 1986-87. The 19= 91- 92 event, predicted more than a year in advance, has also proven to be correct, as reported by Kerr (1992). Currently several research groups are doing routine ENSO predictions, using a variety of methods. Regular observational updates for the tropical Pacific and summaries of forecast results are published monthly in the Climate Diagnostics Bulletin (available from the Climate Analysis Center of NOAA, Washington, D.C.). This information has been used by groups in Peru, Northeast Brazil, India, China, Ethiopia, the United Stat= es, Australia and elsewhere to suggest actions to mitigate the effects of the local climate variations associated with ENSO. More sophisticated and effective prediction procedures are emerging rapidly. The coupled general circulation model being run at the U.S. National Meteorological Center is a state-of-the-art procedure for creating fields of oceanic initial conditions= , taking advantage of the vastly expanded tropical Pacific Ocean data sets available from the observational network brought into being by the TOGA (Tropical Ocean Global Atmosphere) program (whose primary objective is the prediction of climate on time scales of months to years) (Hayes et al., 1991). This prediction scheme successfully forecast the warming in early 1993, a feature all other schemes failed to predict correctly. The Future of Forecasting More in situ data will become available for assimilation not only with the TOGA network but also as ocean climate observing systems expand more fully into the tropical Indian and Atlantic Oceans during the post-TOGA period. These expansions will provide better documentation of regional ENSO-related climate impacts, and improved real-time analyses for coupled model initialization. Enhanced sampling of ocean-atmosphere variability in the Indian Ocean in particular may lead to improved skill at long lead times because surface winds in the tropical Indian Ocean lead those over the tropical Pacific Ocean on intraseasonal to interannual time scales (Barnett, 1983; Lau and Chan, 1986; and Barnett et al., 1988; and Yasunari, 1990). Satellite sea level, wind speed and wind stress retrievals (i.e. from ERS-1 or TOPEX/POSEIDON) have yet to be fully utilized for initializing dynamical model-based short-term climate forecast schemes. Moreover, data assimilation procedures for coupled ocean-atmosphere models (as opposed to ocean-alone or atmosphere-alone models) have yet to be developed and implemented. Model simulations are known to be sensitive to the parameterization of subgrid scale physics (e.g. Miller et al., 1992; Stockdale et al., 1993; Smith and Hess, 1993). Improvements in these parameterizations in atmospheric models (e.g. cumulus convection, boundary layer processes, etc.) and oceanic models (upper ocean mixing) will improve the ability of models to accurately simulate climate variabilit= y, and will optimize data assimilation procedures by ensuring compatibility between model dynamics and data fields to be blended. The most common validation data set for determining a successful model ENSO prediction at present is the NINO3 region (5=B0N-5=B0S= , 90=B0W-150=B0W) SST anomaly in the equatorial Pacific. However, for mitigating against the adverse societal impacts of ENSO, specific regional tropical and extratropical precipitation and air temperature forecasts are more relevant to predict. Ultimately, coupled global ocean-atmosphere GCM's may be the most desirable means of providing forecasts based on their ability to simulate more comprehensive and geographically extensive physical interactions lacking in intermediate, limited domain models. Already, the atmospheric GCM run at NMC for ENSO forecasting is capable of simulating rainfall variability over the continental United States in hindca= st mode, with the ability to distinguish between the heavy rainfall conditions in the southwest during boreal winter 1982-83 and 1991-92 versus drought conditions during boreal winter 1986-87. Progress in climate prediction has come about primarily from studies of a small number of ENSO events (about 10) and even fewer La Ni=F1a events over the past 40 years. Moreover, only in the past 10-15 year= s has the oceanic data been of sufficient quantity and quality to examine critical ENSO-related processes in detail. Research is now advancing on other interannual and interdecadal time scale phenomena through the analysis of global data sets and the development of coupled models capable of investigating the role of non-ENSO related oceanic anomalies (e.g. at higher latitudes and at greater depths than observed during ENSO). There is much room for improvement in prediction models, and rapid strides are being taken to incorporate existing technologies from weather prediction and elsewhere. A better observing system is critical but considered attainable. As recently as 1976 the scientific world barely understood what an El Ni=F1o event was. Within two decades the mechanics of such an event have been determined, and the events themselves have been successfully predicted. With additional observational data, those predictions can become even more precise to alleviate the negative human impacts brought on by El Ni=F1o events. III. CONCERNS AND DIFFICULTIES =09 Communication and cooperation between nations is never a simple undertaking. The attempt to pool information internationally to advance scientific knowledge of ENSO-related variability will be complicated further by communication impediments at a number of levels: (a) between scientists of different disciplines, (b) between national scientific programs that are at different stages of technological development, (c) between the scientific world and the general public; the former has trouble transmitting its message in an understandable and interesting manner, and the latter is often apathetic about receiving scientific information; (d) between nations that, while not hostile, observe standards of national pride and sovereignty. =09 Participants at the workshop gave several examples dramatizing the potential impediments mentioned above. Social scientist Mickey Glantz gave a presentation suggesting that nations are becoming more interested in funding "usable science," as financial resources become more strained. "The challenge is to show the usability of scientific output= , to show cost-benefit analyses," he said. "Decision makers and the general public must be convinced that scientific information can affect the quality of life." There was unanimity in the belief that the scientific playing field must be leveled. Member countries at a lower stage of scientific development need additional training and education. Computational and communication facilities must be equalized. Little can be accomplished through Internet, it was pointed out, if some areas in the region do not yet have the required computers or the technical expertise to maintain them. While more data are needed, methodologies and standards for performing experiments and collecting data are non-uniform. Acceptable standards and procedures should be published. Institutional impediments to effective data exchange need to be resolved. Modeling and forecasting are non-existent in some countries, it was pointed out. Investment in training and education is needed, with long-term effects expected perhaps five years later. Scientists also had little knowledge of the current models available on ocean temperature, etc. What forecasts are being done on a regional basis? In the area of assessment and application, it is believed that scientists in general do not know the needs that potential users have for scientific information. A need exists for some group, perhaps social scientists, who can interface between scientists and users, to determine the needs of the users, and deliver information to them in an understandable way. Nor do scientists know what information is available. A lack of information exists on progress by the various scientific communities, or of the gaps which require further research. Each region should know what studies might be of interest to them. "There is a need to know the needs." Once data is acquired, how is it best used? Notions of what to do with data are sometimes vague. This problem could be alleviated through IAI- sponsored workshops and educational courses. While there has been progress in digitization of monthly averaged climatic data, in most cases the data have not been digitized. IV. ISSUES AND PRIORITIES Alleviation of human suffering and hardship is the basic issue behind the effort to better understand the mechanics of ENSO, and thereby to improve its prediction. The objective of the IAI is to facilitate cooperation among the countries of the Americas in gathering and assimilating data, so that advance notice of climate variations can be passe= d on to diverse sectors of their economies, such as agriculture, energy, water availability, forestry, industry, fisheries, etc. To that end, a scientific agenda for the further study of ENSO should attempt to accomplish the following: =09 (a) Increase the understanding of the ENSO phenomenon and related climate variability; (b) improve forecasting of climate at seasonal to inter-annual time scales; (c) maximize the utility of this information for affected societies within t= he region. The effort requires enhanced hemispheric data archives and the use of atmospheric and oceanic general circulation models to simulate precipitation, temperature and oceanic-atmospheric circulation changes. Individual countries are encouraged to collaborate in the effort to enhance these consolidated data archives. In addition to current observations, paleoclimate research in key regions of South America where the current climate variability is closely linked to ENSO should be encouraged in order to better understand the frequency of occurrence and intensity of past events. Regional and local processes in a number of locations, such as sea surface temperatures of the tropical Atlantic, need to be understood in reference to modulation of the regional climate fluctuations. Climatology a= t the regional scales should be better defined, using most of the past data collected in the region and not yet incorporated in the previous climatologies. For example: jet stream variations and atmospheric blocking activity in the Altiplano region and southeastern South America during ENSO should be further explored. Teleconnections between the tropical and the extra-tropical atmosphere have been studied, but many unanswered questions need to be addressed. More studies are needed to provide a better description of the relative influence of the Pacific (ENSO) and Atlantic oceans on the tropical South and Central Americas, including the Amazon, northeastern Brazil, and the Caribbean area. The Need for a Central Clearing House of Information Participants at this and previous workshops have expressed the need for a central data repository where hemispheric historical data could be stored and become available to all scientists. In times past a gre= at deal of data remained in tabulated form (on paper) at the archives of governmental institutions to be used for operational, not scientific purpose= s. Recently these institutions have achieved progress by digitizing data, a task not yet fully completed. It is believed that other data of great inter= est to the scientific community in general exist in the highly developed countries but remain unavailable to the majority of Latin Americans. Some of these data may be difficult to obtain. They may also encompass great volumes which could impose costly computer equipment demands on the scientists who seek to use it. Imagine, for example, a Colombian scientists working in collaboration with a scientist from another country to understand the climate in Colombia and its surrounding areas, within the context of ENSO. The climate of the area in question is controlled by the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) which has an annual and interannual displacement ranging from Central America all the way to the northern part of Peru and Brazil. The chances of unraveling the thread of variability affecting Colombia are poor if these colleagues only have data from within the political borders of that country. Much time and energy would be expended pulling together the necessary data, and it would be practically impossible to obtain non-digitized data from neighboring countries. Priorities for Advancing the Scientific Agenda In summary, participants in the workshop made the following suggestions for generally advancing scientific information about ENSO: * encourage an interdisciplinary approach to ENSO that looks not only at temperatures and rainfall but also socio-economic issues. * include social scientists in the study of ENSO so they can serve as liaison between science, the general public, and decision-makers. * create and circulate a catalogue of models, modelers, and researchers so scientists become aware of available information. * standardize data collection for easier exchange, and digitize data to increase speed of compilation. * circulate a questionnaire that helps determine the data needs of various areas within the region. * identify an existing entity to serve as a repository for hemispheric data sets and improve its archives through the intercomparison of inventories. * make available selected long-term data from in situ observations and paleoclimatic time series. * find ways to eliminate excessive costs for extracting data from some organizations. * encourage scientific exchange visits, e.g., visiting professorships, student exchanges, graduate programs for foreign students, workshops. * encourage IAI governments to continue funding existing research groups and to fund new groups. The region lacks human resources to conduct the investigations that are needed. The improvement of data availability or communication facilities, although badly needed, are comparatively less urgent than training, development of new research facilities, and reinforcement of existing ones. Linkages with Ongoing International Programs As a research topic, the study of ENSO-related climate variations has been undertaken by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), under the auspices of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) and the Intergovern- mental Oceanographic Commission (IOC). The WCRP program called TOGA is of special relevance in this context. TOGA is a decade-long (1985-1994), established to further explore the predictability of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and to explore the scientific findings that sea surface temperature fluctuations at the basin- scale of the tropical oceans do indeed impact the large scale atmospheric circulation. The International Geosphere-Biosphere Program (IGBP) regional meeting for South America (March, 1990) discussed ENSO as a topic of special interest for the region. As such, a close collaboration is expected with IGBP, including the IGBP/START program (December, 1990). At the regional level, the ERFEN (Regional Group for Study of ENSO) Project would benefit from a direct link to IAI, and vice-versa, on this topic. An IAI-sanctioned research center for ENSO would complement the existing international programs by dedicating itself to regional issues, related to seasonal to interannual climate variability in the region. V. AN AGENDA FOR ACTION In group discussions and plenary sessions over several days, participants in the IAI workshop on ENSO and Interannual Climate Variability devised a research agenda for furthering understanding of the forces that shape the region's climate. Emphasis was placed on the need for improved communication, because of the feeling that scientific knowledge that could lessen the impacts of climate variability has not adequately reached decision makers and the general public in the past. A sense of urgency was also evident, as the damaging social and economic effects of climate have been historically relentless and inevitable. Calls for improvements in communication between scientists were also prevalent in the discussions. Participants recognized that suspicions surrounding the sharing of scientific data and research must be overcome if the regional pooling of information for the common good is to be successful. The physical means of communication must also be improved, as differing stages of development throughout the Americas leave some without the computer technology capable of rapid information exchange. These and other considerations are hereby presented in their respective categories. A. Research Recommendations There are several climatic variables that are of interest to IAI member countries. Precipitation totals over a month or season are the most important variable, with surface air temperatures similarly averaged second in importance. For the benefit of fisheries, ocean near- surface temperatures and the strength of upwelling are the key variables. Following are the empirical studies necessary to improve the social and economic well-being of the IAI countries: (1) Empirical Studies to increase Understanding of the Year to Year Climate Variability in the IAI Countries It is recommended that empirical studies be performed by the member countries of the IAI to both document the regular evolution of precipitation, surface air temperature, and the three-dimensional structure of ocean near-surface temperatures and nutrients during a typical year, and to develop methods to predict interannual variations from this regular evolution. Much of this work is already underway in the member countries, and much work remains to be done. The regular evolution of a variable, for example precipitation, during a typical year is commonly referred to as the seasonal cycle of that variable, and this usage will be employed in the remainder of this report. There are several players that determine the climate and climate variability of the IAI countries. One set of players is the organized oceanic precipitation regions (called the intertropical convergence zones (ITCZs) which are strongly coupled to the equatorial tongues of cold surface water. A second set of players is the continental monsoons. The nature of the interaction of these two sets of players is strongly influenced by distribution of land-sea distribution and the distribution of mountains in the IAI countries. Research into the interaction of the ITCZ/cold tongue complex and the continental monsoons offer numerous opportunities for IAI scientists. Both oceanographic and meteorological studies are needed to document and understand the seasonal cycle and interannual variability of the ITCZs/cold tongues. For the oceanographers there is also the need to document the variability of conditions along the coasts of individual IAI countries. An important aspect of these studies should be to understand the role of the mountain ranges including the Andes and the mountains of central America in producing the observed climate needs to be elucidated. Both the oceanographic and meteorological studies need to examine climate and climate variability from both the regional and local perspective. The seasonal cycle in the IAI countries described above as well as the ENSO and northeast Brazilian precipitation variability (Figs. 1 and 3) have characteristic spatial scales that are larger than any one country. This feature of both oceanic and atmospheric climate variability needs to be embraced by researchers, and to lead them to share data with neighboring countries and to possibly organize joint research projects. At the same time, much of what is experienced locally as climate is strongly influenced by local features in the topography or land- sea distribution. An example of this is the mesoscale ocean variability in the Pacific Ocean off of Central America, which owes its existence to both the basin scale wind field and to the small scale gap winds associated with the Central American mountains. The ensemble effect of the mesoscale eddies in the ocean is believed to contribute significantly to the ocean climate and to influence the local fish stocks. The distribution of the topography and the land-sea distribution also gives rise to significant local variations in precipitation and surface temperatures, much of which is poorly understood. Time series of the climatic variables, of at least 10 years in length, need to be obtained and organized for each country. For each of the IAI countries the existence of significant mountain ranges and the proximity of the oceans gives rise to a wide variety of climates, from temperature high plains to rain forests to deserts. A sufficient number of time series needs to be established to document these different climates. The time series then need to be gridded, and simple maps produced to document the seasonal cycle within each region of the IAI domain. For oceanographic studies, repeated oceanographic sections need to be taken and archived to permit the documentation of the spatial structure of seasonal and interannual variability. As precipitation is the primary climate variable for the IAI countries, a useful first step is for the IAI to focus on the gathering and gridding of precipitation data on both the regional and the IAI-wide level. Three data sets could be constructed. The first data set should strive to include time series of 30 years in length, and grid them at a spatial resolution of 0.5 degrees latitude-longitude. Efforts should be funded by the IAI to find time series that are not presently accessible for climate research. This data set could be gathered regionally, and then merged into a single data set for the entire IAI region. A second data set should contain the longest time series available for individual stations, and will be used for studies of interdecadal climate variability. The third data set should comprise high resolution (approximately 10 km) satellite observations of cloud top temperatures. All of these data sets should be made available free-of-charge on the Internet to all IAI researchers. (2) Empirical Studies to Develop Predictive Knowledge of the Influence of Climate Variability on Social and Economic Activities of IAI Countries Studies should be initiated to document the relationship between the key climatic variables described above and the social and economic conditions in the different IAI countries. An example would be to document the relationship between historical year to year fluctuations in precipitation amounts (or mean surface temperatures) and crop yield. Similarly, the outbreak of various diseases could be related to variations in precipitation and surface temperature. Such studies are needed to elucidate the linkages between the climate variability and the social or economic activities in a country. All aspects of these studies could only be effectively carried out by local researchers in the IAI countries. An example of how climate forecasts have successfully influenced economic activity exists in northern Peru. Precipitation forecasts made there some four months in advance of the rainy season in the Andes have brought economic gain by allowing farmers to choose between the planting rice or cotton. Forecasting now has their enthusiastic support. B.Assessment and Application A protocol for applying information about climate variability involves three basic steps: (1) Create a forecast. (2) Interpret the forecast. (3) Develop a constituency that can use it. The users of data and data products must be identified. Two possibilities are policy makers and decision makers. In North America the decision makers are often the individual business entities, be they farmers, industrialists, or commercial enterprises. In Latin America the decision makers tend to be the government, or national agencies such as energy agencies, or government-subsidized enterprises such as banks that make loans to farmers and industries, although this is not consistently the case. In Costa Rica, for example, the users, in order, tend to be: (1) Agriculture (2) Forestry (3) Education (universities, graduate students) (4) Government (which requests information but sometimes is unable to use it advantageously because it has no agency to assimilate the data and determine the best application) In Mexico, individual fishermen and companies show interest; Although government makes many agricultural decisions, market pressures force decisions in fishing. Within government, the Ministry of =46isheries and the Meteorological Service exhibit most awareness. Based on discussions about the two cases above, participants concluded that there is a need to create awareness of climate information and forecasts at the levels of both the government and the general public. It was recognized that false expectations can be created, especially among political entities. For that reason, the potential economic benefits should be carefully elucidated in understandable language, and extreme events, such as a coming drought, should be highlighted. Positive case studies should be pointed out, such as the system in Brazil where farm production has been maintained in the face of extreme climate variability, due to accurate forecasting. Workshops should be held for the news media, so they can learn what is possible and get the message out to the general public and the decision makers. But scientists themselves need more information about the needs that potential users might have for climate information. They know somewhat vaguely that there are "agricultural needs," and "tourism industry needs," but not specifically what those needs might be. It was recognized that some group must interface with potential users so that information can be delivered in an understandable way. It was suggested that a panel might be formed to design the means for improving communication between scientists and potential users. Within each country, non-governmental offices might be established for the purpose of bridging the gap between science and users. C. Data Collection and Management As mentioned earlier, the nations of the Americas are at different stages of technological development, which leaves the hemisphere with widely divergent means of collecting data and communicating information. It was felt that the IAI might be instrumental in the encouragement and implementation of commonly used hardware throughout the region. A centralized data clearinghouse that collects all the data and distributes it should be established. Critic= al to the information-sharing system is the region-wide establishment of Internet so that any scientist can ask colleagues throughout the Americas, "Where is the information that I need?" A vast amount of data is already available at NCAR and other facilities, but it needs updating. This could be accomplished by enlisting the help of the Latin American countries. Monthly climatic surface and upper air data are already archived at Oak Ridge and elsewhere, but they are significantly incomplete. Some valuable long-time information exists, from in situ observations and paleoclimate time series. Generally, improvement of historical data should be a high priority. Recently developed satellite products will yield new insights into the workings and variability of the ocean-atmosphere climate system. For the oceanographers, satellite measurements will provide estimates of sea surface temperature and many of the components of the surface fluxes (surface winds, specific humidity, cloud type and amount, precipitation, etc.) with a spatial resolution unobtainable with ship- ofopportunity or buoy measurements. In addition, estimates of ocean photosynthesis will provide insights into the role of upwelling in ocean dynamics. For the meteorologists, satellite estimates of precipitation and surface temperature can be used along with in situ measurements to document and understand both the regional and local scale features of the climate in the IAI countries. Estimates of photosynthesis over land will enable scientists to document the variability and interaction of the flora with the atmospheric circulations. Type of Data Needed The following recommendations were made with the basic assumption that recommendations from the IAI workshops will be implemented, and that hardware and communications systems will be available. Sources of data, and the extent of completion, are indicated:=09 (1) It is recommended that the following data be assembled and completed and placed in electronic files: Climate/Surface: Existing data repositories (e.g., at NCAR, Oakridge/CDIAC, NOAA/NCDC) are incomplete and should be updated and/or supplemented from original sources in Latin America (principally the national meteorological services) through a process of intercomparison of inventories. Priority should be given to obtaining missing monthly mean data from 1960 through the present, and adding data from first order WMO stations not presently found in these data bases. Altitude: Existing data repositories (e.g., at NCAR, Oakridge/CDIAC, NOAA/NCDC) are incomplete and should be updated and/or supplemented from original sources in Latin America (principally the national meteorological services) through a process of inter-comparison of inventories. Priority should be given to monthly median data since 1960 through 1993, a record that may be 85% or more complete. Hydrological: Existing data repositories (e.g., at NCAR, Oakridge/CDIAC, NOAA/NCDC) are incomplete and should be updated and/or supplemented from original sources in Latin America (principally the national meteorological services) through a process of intercomparison of inventories. Priority should be given to monthly median data since 1960 through 1993, a record that may be 85% or more complete. Oceanic Data: The climatically applicable archives are already fairly complete and are either already widely available over Internet, or becoming so. Examples of compilations and reprocessed data include: sea surface temperature/SST (COADS, complete); historical bathythermo graphic (BT,XBT) profiles (available from NODC, TAO buoys; drifting buoys (SST, velocity); and satellite products. However, each of these data bases, and others should be examined and improved if necessary, in respect of two criteria: (1) Can they be improved by incorporating data from Latin America (previously unavailable), as in the case of non-transmitted XBTs taken by the various countries?; and (2) Can the availability of these data bases to Latin American scientists through electronic access, CD-ROMs, etc., be improved? Renewable Marine Resources: Registry of selected plankton and chlorophyll series from fixed stations and some cruising in repeated sections (CIOH, INOCAR, INP, IMARPE, IFOP). Fisheries statistics of pelagic and demersal debarkations (INP, IMARPE, IFOP). Some selected series of indicating species (CIOH, INOCAR, INP, IMARPE, IFOP, U. Valparaiso). Inventories should be made on the existing species and their condition, with recommendations issued for the most useful data selection. (2) It is also recommended that those series with the greatest extension in time be identified, and placed in an easily accessible electronic file. (3) That the IAI coordinate with U.S. and European agencies to obtain a free anonymous access (or via electronic request) for hemispheric researchers to be able to use existing large scale files. Such access is now available for COADS, OLR, FSU winds, and many more data sets. (4) In the case of meteorological/climatological and altitude data, lesser duration station data should be obtained also, wherever these are almost complete from 1980 to the present, to improve geographical coverage in the last decade or two for which satellite and model-based products exist. (5) Ways should be found to eliminate excessive extraction costs which currently exist for certain selected data. Specific Recommendations on Acquiring Data The participants recognize that many meteorological and hydrological services may be reluctant to accept requests for climatological data--for what they may consider legitimate reasons. In view of the im-portance of completing the hemispheric file within a minimum amount of time, the following recommendations were made: * Request a reduced amount of data, only what is necessary to complete the large files already accessible. This will simplify access and guarantee a uniformity in the formats. It is important to emphasize that this should not be a "fishing expedition" to indiscriminately obtain all existing data from Latin American archives, rather, only as needed from the more reliable first-order stations, so as to improve the present temporal and spatial coverage of the existing large scale repositories. * Data requests should be channeled through IAI to the environmental services of signatory nations, emphasizing the high priority that this task holds for the success of IAI, as well as the counterpart benefits expected for contributors. Ideally, the participation of national environmental services in IAI should be formalized, such that compliance with such data requests becomes part of their missions. * In order to minimize the amount of data to be requested and be very precise in its specification, a data inventory should be requested from each service so it can be compared with existing information in known accessible files such as NCAR, CDIAC, etc., and a detailed selection be made of data to be requested. * Help in accelerating digitization should take place where needed, and priorities should be suggested for this process. * Public recognition should be given to cooperative agencies, high- lighting their participation in IAI and their efforts in the development of forecasting technology. * IAI should consult with those in each country who have good contacts in the respective services and who can identify key people knowledgeable in the policies of each institution. * IAI should ensure that equal access to data is available to all services outside their own countries on the basis of reciprocity at hemispheric level. If the access infrastructure is not adequate, IAI should seek formulas for assistance (for example through the IAI/GEF Project with counterpart resources) in order to meet the needs for equipment and training. What is the IAI Role? Participants discussed how the IAI can contribute to existing observations and monitoring efforts in the region: (1) Take a pro-active stance in defending observing systems in the face of increasing fiscal pressures to cut costs worldwide (e.g., world weather watch, omega navigation network required for upper-air observations, existing ocean observing systems, etc.) (2) Support those activities that at are difficult to support in research programs or under operational programs. (a) Support a basic observational network, including supporting the steps necessary to identify the networks, parameters, stations, etc. (b) Support data rescue and continuity efforts, which includes working with nations to recognize incorporation into data bases, and developing a payment-in-kind concept if required. (3) Perhaps assume the role of a western hemisphere WMO in defining a minimum atmospheric observing network. (4) Work to instill a partnership and sense of ownership between the sources of data (nations) and the users (scientific community). (5) Develop products that instill a sense of pride and ownership in the contributor. =09 D. Modeling and Forecasting This field is in the early stages of development in the region, and in some countries, non-existent. Investment is needed in training and education, with long-term effects in mind, looking for results at least five years from now. For training, a good model seems to be the one developed by the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction at Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University in New York. It also appears important to incorporate models from diverse parts of the economy, to consider how sea surface temperature, rainfall, and temperature, for example, affect industries such as fisheries and manufacturing. How Can Institutions Cooperate? Participation of governments, private institutions, and universities will be necessary in developing and evaluating models throughout the region. As with data collection and management, the most critical barrier to creation of models is the technological gap, i.e., = the hardware and software availability and the human resources. The following suggestions were made for advancing modeling and forecasting: (1) Identify the existing models and those being developed. (2) Send a questionnaire to all institutions known to be working on a model. (3) Develop a program for scientific exchange within the Americas to improve understanding of the performance of models. (4) Identify regional centers able to gather scientists who could be working on validation of models. (5) Capability for windows is suggested for data bases, which would allow accessing of data from specific regions to reduce the transfer of large volumes of data could be reduced (since most models take a global view). (6) Create interest among scientists from other regional programs in the program being established in the Americas. (7) Application centers should develop a mailing list that would include all the summaries and validation of models. This could be used as a feedback to see if models are working satisfactorily. (8) Adopt a standardized form of collecting, managing, and disseminating data to enhance the use of data. E. Human Dimensions The best data and forecasts will be of little use if the information is not passed on to decision makers and the general public. Participants recognized the difficulties of communication between the scientific and non-scientific worlds. Social scientists present at the workshop offered the following suggestions to improve this communication: (1) Prepare an annotated bibliography focusing on ENSO impacts and forecast application. This could be compiled by country and by sector, particularly for those institutions and organizations in the main sectors that are affected. (2) Compile a list of people, institutions, and organizations concerned with the socio-economic impacts and the application of ENSO forecasts and events. (3) Prepare a slide presentation with accompanying text to enable researchers and applications people to explain in user-friendly terms about ENSO, its impacts, and efforts to lower impacts. (A Spanish-language translation of the booklet "Report to the Nation," which explains ENSO events, is underway by NOAA's Office of Global Programs) (4) Hold informal planning meetings with those aware of ENSO forecasts, impacts, and applications, to determine who they are, what they need, generally what information is essential for their activities. This might include sectors such as health, fisheries, water, energy, agriculture, tourist, public safety, and industry. (5) In all dealings with the public, include a few successful cases of ENSO forecasting and the positive response that followed. The best example is probably the Peru program. Possible Contributions by IAI The IAI should encourage and support regional and national workshops on the societal impacts of ENSO, with interaction between social scientists, decision makers, and media representatives. Building a relationship with the media was considered especially important. The media, it was mentioned, will not work for science, but it will work with science. If convinced of the interest society should have in ENSO, it will report information about that subject adequately. Private industry also should be brought into collaboration, as it can supply information not published in scientific journals. Industry often worries that release of information might compromise its economic position, so companies need to be convinced that this is not necessarily the case and that cooperation will benefit society in general and ultimately, them as well. VI. REFERENCES Barnett, T. P., 1983: Interaction of the Monsoon and the Pacific Trade Wind System at Interannual Time Scales. Part I: the Equatorial Zone. Mon. Wea. Rev., 111,756-773. Barnett, T.P. Graham, M. Cane, S. Zebiak, S. Dolan, J. O'Brien, and D. Legle= r, 1988: On the Prediction of the El Ni=F1o of 1986-1987. Science, 241-192- 196. Bjerknes, J., 1966: A Possible Response of Atmospheric Hadley Cell to Equatorial Anomalies of Ocean Temperature. Tellus, 18,820-829. Bjerknes, J., 1967: Atmospheric Teleconnections from the Equatorial Pacific. Mon. Wea. Rev., 97, 163-172. Canby, T. Y., 1984: El Ni=F1o III Wind. National Geographic, 165(2), 144- 183. Cane, M.A., S.E. Zebiak and S.C. Dolan, 1986: Experimental Forecast of El Ni=F1o. Nature, 32127-832. Glantz, M. H., 1984: Floods, Fires, and Famine: Is El Ni=F1o to Blame? Oceanus, 27, 14-20. Hayes, S. P., L. J. Mangum, J. Picaut, A. Sumi, and K. Takeuchi, 1991: TOGA-TAO: A Moored Array for the Real-Time Measurements in Tropical Pacific. Ocean.Bull.Amer.Met.Soc., 72(3), 339-347. Horel, J. D. and J . M. Wallace, 1981: Planetary-Scale Atmospheric Phenomena Associated with the Southern Oscillation. Mon.Wea. Rev., 109, 813-829. IGBP-Report from the IGBP Regional Meeting for South America. S=E3o Jos=E9 dos Campos, SP, Brazil, 5-9 March 1990. Report No. 16. IGBP-Global Change System for Analysis, Research and Training (START). Bellagio, 3-7 December 1990. Report No. 15. Kousky, V. E., M. T. Kayano, and I.F.A. Cavalcanti, 1984: A Review of the Southern Oscillation: Ooceanic-Atmospheric Circulation Changes and Related Rainfall Anomalies. Tellus, 36A, 490-504. Kerr, R. A. 1992: A Successful Forecast of An El Ni=F1o Winter. Science, 155, 24 January 1992, 402. Lagos, P., and J. Buizer, 1992: El Ni=F1o and Peru: A Nation's Response to Interannual Climate Variability. In: Natural and Technological Disasters: Causes, Effects, and Preventive Measures. Pennsylvania Academy of Sciences. Lau, K. M. and P. H. Chen, 1986:The 40-50 Day Oscillation and the El Ni=F1o/Southern Oscillation: a New Perspective. Bull. Am. Met. Soc., 533- 534. Miller, M. J., A. C. M. Beljaars, and T. N. Palmer, 1992: The Sensitivity o= f the ECMWF Model to Parameterization of Evaporation from the Tropical Oceans. J. Climate, 5, 418-434. Philander, G.,1989: EL Ni=F1o and La Ni=F1a. American Scientist, 451-459. Rasmusson, E. M. and T. H. Carpenter, 1982: Variations in Tropical Sea Surface Temperature and Surface Wind Fields Associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Ni=F1o. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110,354-384. Ropelewski, C. F. and M. S. Halpert, 1987: Global and Regional Scale Precipitation Patterns Associated with the El Ni=F1o/Southern Oscillation. Mon. Wea. Rev., 115,1606-1626. Smith, N. R. and G. D. Hess, 1993: A Comparison of Vertical Eddy Mixing for Equatorial Ocean Models. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 23,1823-1830. Stockdale, T., D. Anderson, M. Davey, P. Delecluse, A. Kattenberg, Y. Kitamura, M. Latif, and T. Yamagata, 1993: Intercomparison of Tropical Ocean Models. World Climate Research Program Report WCRP-79, Geneva, Switzerland, 43pp. Yasunari, T., 1990:Impact of Indian Monsoon on the Coupled Atmosphere/Ocean System in the Tropical Pacific. Meteorol. Atmos. Phys., 44,29-41. APPENDIX 1 IAI INITIAL SCIENTIFIC THEMES * The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems; * High Latitude Processes; * Ocean/Land/Atmosphere Interactions in the Inter-tropical Americas; * Tropical Ecosystems and Biogeochemical Cycles; * ENSO and Interannual Climate Variability; * The Comparative Studies of Temperate Terrestrial Ecosystems; * The Study of the Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity. APPENDIX 2 ACRONYMS IAI Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research =09 GNP Gross National Product SST Sea Surface Temperature NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA/OGP NOAA/Office of Global Programs TOGA Tropical Oceans--Global Atmosphere Program ERS-1 European Remote Sensing Satellite TOPEX/POSEIDON Topographic Experiment/Poseidon NMC National Meteorologic Center IRI International Research Institute CRICYT Centro Regional de Investigaciones Cient=EDficas y Tecnol=F3g= icas ITCZ Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone WCRP World Climate Research Program WMO World Meteorological Organization ICSU International Council of Scientific Unions START System for Analysis Research and Training ERFEN Regional Group for Study of ENSO NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research Oakridge/CDIAC Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center NOAA/NCDC NOAA/National Climatic Data Center TSM Temperatura Superficial del Mar COADS Comprehensive Ocean and Atmospheric Data Set NMC/Reynolds National Meteorologic Center/Reynolds NMM Nivel Medio del Mar PSML Pacific Mean Sea Level BT/XBT Bathy Termograph/Expandable Bathy Termograph AOML Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory NODC National Oceanic Data Center TAO Tropical Atmospheric Ocean Array CIOH Comisi=F3n Intergubernamental Oceanogr=E1fica e Hidrogr=E1fica INOCAR Instituto Oceanogr=E1fico de la Armada (Ecuador) INP Instituto Nacional de Pesca IMARPE Instituto del Mar del Per=FA IFOP Instituto de Fomento Pesquero =46SU Florida State University EPOCS Equatorial Pacific Ocean Climate Studies APPENDIX 3 WORKSHOP PARTICIPANTS Julio Hordig=09 Servicio Meteorol=F3gico Nacional=09 25 DE MAYO 658, 1002 Buenos Aires ARGENTINA=09 Tel. (54 1) 312 4481=09 =46ax (54 1) 311 3968 =09 Adriana Elsa Fern=E1ndez=09 Universidad de Buenos Aires=09 Dpto. de Ciencias de la Atm=F3sfera=09 2do. Pabell=F3n, Ciudad Universitaria, Buenos Aires ARGENTINA=09 Tel. (54 1) 782 6528 =46ax (54 1) 788 3572 =09 Mario N. Nu=F1ez=09 Secretar=EDa de Ciencia y Tecnolog=EDa=09 Depart. de Meteorolog=EDa, Universidad de Buenos Aires=09 Pabell=F3n II, Piso 2 - Ciudad Universitaria Buenos Aires 1428 ARGENTINA=09 Tel.(54 1) 788 3572=09 =46ax (54 1) 788 3572=09 mnunez@cima.edu.ar=09 Elvira Gentile=09 IAI Newsletter=09 Av. Montes de Oca 2124, 1271 Buenos Aires ARGENTINA=09 Tel. (54 1) 217 576 =46ax (54 1) 303 2299 @compuserve.com=09 Carlos Diaz Escobar=09 Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa y Hidrolog=EDa=09 Edificio "La Urbana", 6o. Piso=09 Avda. Camacho No. 1485, La Paz=09 BOLIVIA =09 Tel. (591 2) 392 413=09 Caarem Studzinski=09 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) CPTED-CP 515 12221 Sao Jose dos Campos-SP =09 BRAZIL=09 Tel. (55 123) 418 977, ext. 267=09 =46ax (55 123) 411 876=09 caarem@cptec.inpe.br =09 Carlos Repelli=09 =46UNCEME=09 Av. Bezerra de Menezes, 1900=09 =46ortaleza, Ceara 60325 =09 BRAZIL=09 Tel. (55 85) 281 1011 ext.230=09 =46ax (55 85) 281 1165=09 repelli@zeus.funceme.br=09 Mary Kayano Insituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)/CPTEC Av. dos Astronautas, 1758, CP 515 Jardim da Granja 12221 Sao Jose dos Campos, SP BRAZIL Tel. (55 123) 418 977 ext. 625 =46ax (55 123) 411 876 mary@itid.inpe.br=09 =09 Madhav Khandekar Environment Canada=09 4905 Duferin St. Downsdiew, Ontario CANADA=09 Tel.(416) 739 4913=09 =46ax (416) 739 4221 =09 Howard J. Freeland=09 Department of Fisheries and Oceans=09 Institute of Ocean Sciences=09 P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C. V8Z 4B2=09 CANADA=09 Tel. (604) 363 6580 =46ax (604) 363 6746 hjfreeland@ios.bc.ca Sergio Avaria=09 Instituto de Oceanolog=EDa - Universidad de Valparaiso=09 Casilla 13-D Vi=F1a del Mar =09 CHILE =09 Tel. (56 32) 833 214 Patricio Aceituno=09 Universidad de Chile=09 =46acultas de Ciencias y Matem=E1ticas=09 Departamento de Geolog=EDa y Geof=EDsica Blanco Encalada, 2085 - Santiago CHILE=09 Tel. (56 2) 696 8790=09 =46ax (56 2) 671 2799=09 paceitun@uchcecvm.cec.uchile.cl=09 Juan Quintana=09 Direcci=F3n Meteorol=F3gica de Chile=09 Casilla 717, Santiago =09 CHILE=09 Tel. (56 2) 601 9001=09 =46ax: (56 2) 601 9590 =09 Patricia Ramirez=09 Instituto Meteorol=F3gico Nacional=09 Apartado 7 3350, San Jos=E9 1000 COSTA RICA=09 Tel.(506) 222 467=09 =46ax (506) 231 837=09 Carlos Lugo Instituto Nacional de Metereolog=EDa e Hidrolog=EDa=09 Inaquito 923 y Corea Quito ECUADOR=09 Tel. (593 2) 468 327=09 =46ax (593 2) 433 934 Jorge Calder=F3n=09 CINAIM=09 Kilometro 30 1/2 Via Perimetral - Guayaquil=09 ECUADOR=09 Tel. (59 34) 354 587=09 =46ax (59 34) 269 456=09 cenaim@espol.edu.ec =09 Timothy Baumgartner=09 CICESE=09 Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada Km 107=09 Apdo. Postal 2732 Ensenada, Baja California=09 MEXICO=09 Tel. (619) 534 2171=09 =46ax (1) (619) 534 7641=09 tbaumgartner@cicese.mx=09 Armando Trasvi=F1a=09 CICESE=09 Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada Km. 107, Ensenada, B.C.=09 MEXICO=09 Tel.(52 617) 442 00=09 =46ax (52 617) 451 56=09 trasvi@cicese.mx =09 Victor Maga=F1a=09 Instituto de Ciencias de la Atm=F3sfera (UNAM) Mexico, D.F. MEXICO=09 Tel. (525) 622 4057 =46ax (525) 616 0789=09 victor@belenos.atmosfcu.unam.mx =09 Julio Sheinbaum=09 CICESE=09 Carretera Tijuana-Ensenada Km. 107=09 Ensenada, Baja California =09 MEXICO=09 Tel. (52 617) 451 54=09 =46ax (52 617) 451 56=09 julios@cicese.mx=09 Benjamin Grassi=09 Servicio Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa e Hidrolog=EDa=09 Av. Mariscal Lopez 1146, 4 PARAGUAY=09 Tel. (595 21) 22139=09 =46ax (595 21) 22139 =09 Angel Cornejo=09 Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09 Calatrava 216, Urb. Camino Real La Molina, Lima 100=09 PERU=09 Tel. (51 14) 752 996=09 =46ax (51 14) 370 258=09 acornejo@iris.igp.gob.pe =09 Eduardo Franco=09 Intermediate Technology Development Group - ITDG=09 Av. JorgeCh=E1vez 275, Miraflores, Lima 18, Casilla 18-0620 =09 PERU=09 Tel. (51 14) 475 127=09 =46ax (51 14) 466 621=09 eduardof@itdg.org.pe =09 Andrew Maskey=09 Intermediate Technology Development Group - ITDG=09 Av. Jorge Chavez 275, Miraflores, Lima 18, Casilla 18-0620 =09 PERU=09 Tel. (51 14) 475 127=09 =46ax (51 14) 466 621 =09 Pablo Lagos=09 Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA =09 Apartado 3747, Lima 100=09 PERU=09 Tel. (51 14) 752 996=09 =46ax (51 14) 370 258=09 plagos@gateway.omnet.com =09 Carlos Eduardo Ere=F1o=09 Agregado Naval a la Embajada Argentina=09 Av. Pardo y Aliaga, Piso 12, San Isidro, Lima=09 PERU Tel. (541) 217 576 =46ax (541) 303 2299 =09 =09 Eleodoro Aquize Jaen=09 Proyecto Epecial Binacional "Lago Titicaca" (PELT)=09 Av. La Torre 346, Puno =09 PERU =09 Jorge Benavides=09 Ministerio de Relaciones Exteriores=09 Jr. Lampa, 545, Lima 1 =09 PERU =09 Jorge Bravo=09 Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09 Calatrava 216, Urb. Camino Real La Molina, Lima PERU =09 jbravo@igpcam.pe =09 Carlos Bustios=09 SENAMHI=09 Jr. Cahuide 805, Ofic. 411=09 Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09 PERU =09 Sebastian Cajja Maguina=09 Instituto Nacional de Investigaci=F3n de Transporte (INAIT)=09 G. Paredes 258, Lima =09 PERU =09 Amelia Diaz=09 SENAMHI=09 Jr. Cahuide 805, 4to. Piso=09 Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09 PERU =09 Walter Elliot=09 IMARPE=09 Jr. Capac Llauto 538=09 Z=E1rate, Lima=09 PERU =09 Manuel Flores Palomino=09 IMARPE=09 Jr. Capac Llauto 538=09 Z=E1rate, Lima =09 PERU =09 Alfonso Garc=EDa Pe=F1a=09 SENAMHI=09 Jr. Cahuide 805=09 Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima =09 PERU =09 Mar=EDa del Carmen Grados Quispe=09 IMARPE =09 Esq. Gral. Gamarra y Gral. Valle s/n=09 Chucuito, Callao=09 PERU =09 Eduardo G=F3mez Cornejo=09 Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina=09 Av. La Universidad s/n=09 Apartado 456, La Molina, Lima=09 PERU =09 Rosario Horn=09 United Nations Development Programme=09 Canaval y Moreyra 590=09 San Isidro, Lima =09 PERU =09 Ena Jaimes E.=09 SENAMHI=09 Jr. Cahuide 805=09 Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09 PERU =09 Romulo Jord=E1n=09 IMARPE=09 Esq. Gral Gamarra y Gral Valle s/n=09 Chucuito, Callao=09 PERU =09 Guillerno Johnson=09 Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09 Calle Calatrava 216, Urb. Camino Real=09 La Molina, Lima =09 PERU =09 Gustavo Laos =09 DHN=09 Gamarra 500=09 Chucuito, Callao =09 PERU =09 Jaime Mendo=09 Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina=09 =46aculdad de Pesqueria=09 Av. La Universidad s/n=09 La Molina, Lima=09 PERU =09 Miguel Niquen C.=09 IMARPE=09 Esq. Gral. Gamarra y Gral. Valle s/n=09 Chucuito, Callao=09 PERU =09 Jorge Otiniano R.=09 DHN=09 Gamarra 500=09 Chucuito, Callao=09 PERU =09 Luis Pizarro P.=09 IMARPE=09 Esq. Gral. Gamarra y Gra. Valle s/n=09 Apartado 22, Chucuito, Callao=09 PERU =09 Wilfredo Pelayo=09 Oficina de Informaci=F3n Agr=E1ria=09 Ministerio de Agricultura=09 Jr. Pezuela s/n, Lima=09 PERU =09 Juan Quispe A.=09 DHNM, Gamarra 500=09 Chucuito, Callao=09 PERU =09 Walter S=E1nchez=09 Clima Consult=09 Santa Rosa 134=09 Urb. Santa Felicia=09 Lima 12=09 PERU =09 Jos=E9 Silva=09 SENAMHI=09 Jr. Cahuide 805=09 Jes=FAs Mar=EDa, Lima=09 PERU =09 Miriam Tamayo=09 DHNM=09 Gamarra 500, Chucuito, Callao =09 PERU =09 Manuel Uccelletti=09 CPPS=09 Apartado Postal 2397, Lima 1 =09 PERU =09 Manuel Valverde=09 SENAMHI=09 Jr. Cahuide 805=09 Apartado 1308=09 Jesus Maria, Lima PERU =09 valverde@senamh.gob.pe =09 Hector Soldi=09 Direcci=F3n de Hidrograf=EDa y Navegaci=F3n=09 Gamarra 500, Chucuito Callao=09 PERU=09 Tel. (51 14) 297 564=09 =46ax (51 14) 652 995=09 omnet toga.peru =09 Ronald Woodman=09 Radio Observatorio de Jicamarca=09 Instituto Geof=EDsico del Per=FA=09 Ap. 13-0207, Lima 13=09 PERU =09 Naoto Yamamoto=09 Programa de las Naciones Unidas para el Desarrollo=09 Canaval y Moreyra 590=09 San Isidro, Lima =09 PERU =09 Jorge Zuzunaga=09 Ministerio de Pesquer=EDa=09 Calle 1 Oest, Urb. Corpac, Lima=09 PERU =09 Carlos Mas Edificio Plaza Independencia, Oficina 34, Plaza Independencia, 776 Montevideo, CP 11200 URUGUAY =09 Tel. (598 2) 922 416=09 cmas@iniaee.org.uy=09 Alvaro Diaz Grupo de Estudio de la Dinamica de los Oceanos y la Atmosfera Facultad de Ingenieria Universidad de la Republica URUGUAY=09 Tel. (598 2) 715 278=09 =46ax (598 2) 715 446=09 adiaz@fing.edu.uy Guillermo Ramis=09 Direcci=F3n Nacional de Meteorolog=EDa=09 Casilla de Correo 64, Montevideo URUGUAY=09 Tel. (598 2) 405 655 =46ax (598 2) 497 391 =09 David Enfield=09 NOAA/ AOML=09 4301 Rickenbacker Cswy =09 Miami, FL 33149=09 USA=09 Tel. (305) 361 4351=09 =46ax (305) 361 4449=09 enfield@ocean.aoml.erl.gov =09 Paul Epstein=09 Harvard Medical School Cambridge Hospital 1493 Cambridge Street=09 Cambridge, MA 02139 USA=09 Tel. (617) 498 1032 =46ax (617) 498 1671=09 pepstein@igc.org =09 Michael Glantz=09 National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)/ESIG Environmental and Societal Impacts Group=09 P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, Colorado 80307-3000=09 USA=09 Tel. (303) 497 8119=09 =46ax (303) 497 8125 glantz@ncar.ucar.edu =09 Stephen Piotrowicz=09 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 1315 East-West Hwy=09 SSMC-3 11th Floor OAR/PDC=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910=09 USA=09 Tel. (301) 713 2465=09 =46ax (301) 713 0666=09 spiotrowicz@red.noaa.gov =09 Mark Cane Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory=09 Columbia University=09 Route 9W Palisades, NY 10964=09 USA=09 Tel. (914) 365 8344=09 =46ax (914) 365 0718=09 mcane@ldgo.columbia.edu=09 Rodrigo Nu=F1ez=09 The Florida State University=09 COAPS 020 Love Building Tallahassee, FL 32306-3041=09 USA=09 Tel. (904) 644 6532=09 =46ax (904) 644 4581=09 nunez@coaps.fsu.edu =09 Todd Mitchell=09 University of Washington=09 Dept. of Atmospheric Sciences AK-40=09 Seattle, WA=09 USA=09 Tel. (206) 685 8438=09 =46ax (206) 685 3397 mitchell@atmos.washington.edu =09 James L. Buizer=09 NOAA Office of Global Programs=09 1100 Wayne Avenue, Suite 1225=09 Silver Spring MD 20910=09 USA=09 Tel. (301) 427 2089 =46ax (301) 427 2082=09 buizer@ogp.noaa.gov James O'Brien=09 Mesoscale Air-Sea Interaction Group=09 B-174 020 Love Building=09 The Florida State University=09 Tallahassee, FLA=09 USA=09 Tel. (904) 644 4581=09 =46ax (904) 644 4841=09 obrien@masig.fsu.edu=09 Scott Stefanski=09 Climate Institute=09 324 4th Street, N.E. =09 Washington, D.C. 20002-5821 =09 USA=09 Tel. (202) 547 0104=09 =46ax (202) 547 0111=09 climateinst@igc.apc.org =09 Sondra Holmes=09 NOAA Office of Global Programs=09 1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1225=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910 =09 USA=09 Tel. (301) 427 2089=09 =46ax (301) 427 2082=09 Noel Grove =09 IAI Editor 2114 St. Louis Rd. Middleburg, VA 22117 =09 USA=09 Tel. (703) 687 5052 =46ax (703) 687 5052 =09 Rub=E9n Lara =09 IAI Office of the Executive Scientist=09 1100 Wayne Ave., Suite 1201=09 Silver Spring, MD 20910 Tel. (301) 589 5747=09 =46ax (301) 589 5711=09 lara@ogp.noaa.gov =09 Guillermo Berri=09 IRICP Applications and Training Pilot Project=09 IRICP House-Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory=09 Columbia University PoBox 1000/Rt 9W/IRICP House (GHB)=09 Palisades, N.Y. 10964-8000 USA=09 Tel. (914) 365 8765=09 =46ax (914) 365 8764=09 berri@exigente.ldgo.columbia.edu =09