A snowstorm buries cars in Baltimore, Maryland.
Credit: Bill Swartwout; www.SouthBaltimore.com
Researchers at AER and MIT are taking winter weather forecasting beyond El Nino by investigating the relationship between Siberian snow cover in fall months, and Northern Hemisphere climate variability during the winter. A forecast model developed by AER scientist Judah Cohen has achieved on-target forecasts for major cities in the industrialized countries.
"Weather affects peoples' lives and the global economy on a daily basis," says Anjuli Bamzai, program director in NSF's climate dynamics program. "Improving our ability to predict cold weather and heavy snow has obvious benefits. The success of Cohen's real-time forecasts offers a way to improve our ability to anticipate such important events."
Predicted winter surface temperature anomalies for the Northern Hemisphere Dec-Jan-Feb 2013/14 in degrees Fahrenheit. The model is forecasting cold for much of Western and Northern North America, the Mediterranean and south-central Asia, with warm for the Eastern U.S. and Northern Eurasia. The model uses October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies, and predicted El Nino/Southern Oscillation anomalies. For the first time, sea ice anomalies from September, and circulation in the North Pacific, were used in generating the experimental forecast.
Credit: Judah Cohen, MIT and AER, Inc.