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Abstract Thinking


The new seasonal forecast model has been continuously updated and tested using hindcasts and real-time forecasts. In addition to incorporating data on October Eurasian snow cover extent, sea surface temperature, other inputs into the forecasts include anomalies from the fall season such as sea level pressure anomalies and sea ice concentration anomalies.

Below is an example from the winter of 2013 where the model predicted cold temperatures across Northern Europe and overall warm temperatures around the Mediterranean (left/top image) very close to what was observed (right/bottom image).

Image showing a Forecast Temperature Anomaly Jan-Feb-Mar 2013. Click for larger image.

The predicted winter surface temperature anomalies (differences from normal) for Europe Jan-Feb-Mar 2013 in degrees Celsius. The predictions make use of October Siberian snow cover, sea level pressure anomalies and equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies.

Image showing a Observed Temperature Anomaly Jan-Feb-Mar 2010. Click for larger image.

The verifying observed temperatures for Europe Jan-Feb-Mar 2013 in degrees Celsius. The large scale temperature pattern predicted for last winter was correctly predicted though observed temperatures were somewhat colder than predicted.

Image descriptions and credits

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